Metro area, Indiana
Elkhart-Goshen, IN
127,730 people work in this area, at mean pay of $58,180 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 50 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 29%
- 16%
- 55%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 16% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 20%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 60% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Assemblers | 18,960 | 10% | 4.1 million | $47K |
| Office Clerks, General | 1,960 | 54% | 2.2 million | $45K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 1,980 | 53% | 2.2 million | $49K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 1,540 | 64% | 2.1 million | $48K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 1,190 | 78% | 1.9 million | $49K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 2,370 | 36% | 1.8 million | $75K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 2,300 | 32% | 1.5 million | $65K |
| Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers | 1,970 | 24% | 987,523 | $48K |
| Registered Nurses | 1,650 | 28% | 954,098 | $88K |
| Retail Salespersons | 2,270 | 19% | 915,991 | $33K |
| Cashiers | 2,240 | 19% | 861,952 | $30K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 1,980 | 19% | 782,496 | $35K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 308 smaller jobs (48,440 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 96% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Review work orders and blueprints to ensure work is performed according to specifications.Team Assemblers1.7 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Complete production reports to communicate team production level to management.Team Assemblers1.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Determine work assignments and procedures.Team Assemblers1.2 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers539,637 hours100% of the task within reach
- Monitor market conditions, product innovations, and competitors' products, prices, and sales.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products538,557 hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare documents, such as work orders, bills of lading, or shipping orders, to route materials.Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks527,814 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General490,928 hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and develop new products and production processes.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers481,449 hours67% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand415,045 hours100% of the task within reach
- Operate computers programmed with accounting software to record, store, and analyze information.Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks386,998 hours100% of the task within reach
Other areas in Indiana
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN1,105,170 people22% now, 35% by 2028
- Fort Wayne, IN225,520 people22% now, 33% by 2028
- Northern Indiana nonmetropolitan area210,320 people20% now, 29% by 2028
- Southern Indiana nonmetropolitan area196,540 people20% now, 29% by 2028
- Central Indiana nonmetropolitan area161,570 people21% now, 29% by 2028
- Evansville, IN135,250 people22% now, 33% by 2028
- South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI131,670 people22% now, 34% by 2028
- Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN102,200 people21% now, 32% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works