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Tax Preparers

Prepare tax returns for individuals or small businesses.

76,480 people do this job in the US. $54,920 a year.

now
80%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 93%
  • 7%
  • 0%
13%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 93% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 72%. Today's estimate: 80%.

0%25%50%75%100%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 1% within reacho3, April 2025: 11% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 16% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 27% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 27% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 35% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 37% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 72% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 80% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 12 tasks from .

TaskKind
Prepare or assist in preparing simple to complex tax returns for individuals or small businesses.Done several times a day by most who do it. 33%2.1 h50 min to 5 h65%Half by now
Compute taxes owed or overpaid, using adding machines or personal computers, and complete entries on forms, following tax form instructions and tax tables.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 17%50 min25 min to 1.7 h99%Half by now
Review financial records, such as income statements and documentation of expenditures to determine forms needed to prepare tax returns.Done daily by most who do it. 12%1.1 h25 min to 2.1 h95%Half by now
Use all appropriate adjustments, deductions, and credits to keep clients' taxes to a minimum.Done several times a day by most who do it. 11%38 min17 min to 1.7 h98%Half by now
Answer questions and provide future tax planning to clients.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 6%38 min17 min to 1.7 h98%Half by now
Interview clients to obtain additional information on taxable income and deductible expenses and allowances.Done several times a day by most who do it. 6%33 min17 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Furnish taxpayers with sufficient information and advice to ensure correct tax form completion.Done several times a day by most who do it. AI observed on this task.5%25 min13 min to 50 min100%Half by now
Explain federal and state tax laws to individuals and companies.Done more than weekly by most who do it. AI observed on this task.5%25 min8 min to 50 min100%Half by now
Check data input or verify totals on forms prepared by others to detect errors in arithmetic, data entry, or procedures.Done more than weekly by most who do it. AI observed on this task.3%25 min13 min to 1.1 h100%Half by now
Consult tax law handbooks or bulletins to determine procedures for preparation of atypical returns.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 1%33 min13 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Calculate form preparation fees according to return complexity and processing time required.Done daily by most who do it. 0.9%8 min4 min to 17 min100%Half by now
Schedule appointments with clients.Done more than weekly by most who do it. AI observed on this task.0.5%8 min4 min to 17 min100%Half by now

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.