Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers
Install or repair heating, central air conditioning, HVAC, or refrigeration systems, including oil burners, hot-air furnaces, and heating stoves.
409,670 people do this job in the US. $61,010 a year.
of the working time. Estimate.
- 7%
- 2%
- 91%
Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 7%. Today's estimate: 7%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
The tasks
Sorted by . 30 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate, order, pick up, deliver, and install materials and supplies needed to maintain equipment in good working condition.Done daily by most who do it. | 7% | 1.7 h25 min to 4.2 h | Stays with people | |
| Install dehumidifiers or related equipment for spaces that require cool, dry air to operate efficiently, such as computer rooms.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 7% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Repair or service heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to improve efficiency, such as by changing filters, cleaning ducts, and refilling non-toxic refrigerants.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 1.3 h38 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Repair or replace defective equipment, components, or wiring.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 1.7 h25 min to 4.2 h | Stays with people | |
| Connect heating or air conditioning equipment to fuel, water, or refrigerant source to form complete circuit.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 5% | 1.7 h38 min to 3.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Lay out and connect electrical wiring between controls and equipment, according to wiring diagrams, using electrician's hand tools.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 1.3 h38 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Install or repair self-contained ground source heat pumps or hybrid ground or air source heat pumps to minimize carbon-based energy consumption and reduce carbon emissions.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 4% | 5 h1.7 h to 1.3 work days | Stays with people | |
| Mount compressor, condenser, and other components in specified locations on frames, using hand tools and acetylene welding equipment.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 4% | 2.5 h50 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Recommend, develop, or perform preventive or general maintenance procedures, such as cleaning, power-washing, or vacuuming equipment, oiling parts, or changing filters.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 4% | 1.3 h25 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Install auxiliary components to heating or cooling equipment, such as expansion or discharge valves, air ducts, pipes, blowers, dampers, flues, or stokers.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 1.7 h38 min to 3.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Inspect and test systems to verify system compliance with plans and specifications or to detect and locate malfunctions.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 1.3 h33 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Comply with all applicable standards, policies, or procedures, such as safety procedures or the maintenance of a clean work area.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Stationary Engineers and Boiler Operators13% now, 22% by 2028
- Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters16% now, 24% by 2028
- Control and Valve Installers and Repairers, Except Mechanical Door1% now, 1% by 2028
- Home Appliance Repairers16% now, 16% by 2028
- Boilermakers3% now, 3% by 2028
- Solar Thermal Installers and Technicians2% now, 17% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
- Building Equipment Contractors305,330 people
- Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods (4232, 4233, 4235, 4236, 4237, and 4239 only)12,190 people
- Fuel Dealers8,480 people
- Local Government, excluding Schools and Hospitals6,960 people
- Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment (except Automotive and Electronic) Repair and Maintenance6,790 people
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).