Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters
In short: today's best AI models could do about 23% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 77% of the time, stays with people.
Assemble, install, alter, and repair pipelines or pipe systems that carry water, steam, air, or other liquids or gases. May install heating and cooling equipment and mechanical control systems. Includes sprinkler fitters.
465,840 people do this job in the US. $63,800 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on0 h
- A person checks AI's work9 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people31 h
Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 0 hours, 9 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 31 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Draw full scale pipe layouts (about 5 h, a person checks); Plan pipe layout and installation (about 2 h, a person checks); Select pipe and materials to spec (under an hour, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 22%
- 1%
- 0%
- 5%
- 72%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 23% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 11%. Today's estimate: 23%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 30 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.034% to 0.016% (released February and March 2025); 0.016% to 0.032% (August 2025 to February 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.034% | 344 of 708 | 5 of 30 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.016% | 451 of 703 | 4 of 30 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.016% | 395 of 655 | 4 of 30 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.033% | 307 of 672 | 6 of 30 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.032% | 317 of 677 | 5 of 30 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 30 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 30 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 82% of this job's working time as physical work. For 40% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 34% in a purpose-built cell, 1% in a structured facility, 5% in any setting. 0.51 of 3, the 310th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 18%
- No robot shown 41%
- In a purpose-built cell 34%
- In a structured facility 1%
- In any setting 5%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
77% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Install geothermal pipe systems, the hands-on work, 18%
- Install underground piping, the hands-on work, 11%
- Install pipes, valves and fixtures, the hands-on work, 6%
- Direct plumbing helpers, the in-person work, 4%
- Repair leaks and clogged drains, the hands-on work, 4%
- Mark out pipe positions, the hands-on work, 3%
What becomes checking the machine
22% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it.
- Draw full scale pipe layouts, costly if wrong, 12%
- Plan pipe layout and installation, severe if wrong, 4%
- Estimate job time and cost, costly if wrong, 2%
- Select pipe and materials to spec, costly if wrong, 2%
- Read plans and codes for the job, costly if wrong, 1%
- Survey structures to plan the install, costly if wrong, 0.7%
What to learn
- The hands-on craft. About 72% of the time is hands-on work, which no model here does; robots are rated separately on this page.
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- Signing off under your license. Some tasks need a licensed, certified or sworn person to do or sign them. The license, and the judgment it stands for, stays with the person.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check or sign: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts. About 22% of the time is documents and data, the part models reach first: writing a clear brief, giving the right material, and checking what comes back.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 30 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Install pipe systems to support alternative energy-fueled systems, such as geothermal heating or cooling systems.Fitting the piping for geothermal and similar systems by hand.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 18% | 2.5 work days6.7 h to 1 work week | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Lay out full scale drawings of pipe systems, supports, or related equipment, according to blueprints.Drawing the runs and supports at full size from the blueprints.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Dusty Robotics FieldPrinter 2 / FieldPrint Platform (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 12% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 h | Documents 100% | 100%Half by now |
| Install underground storm, sanitary, or water piping systems, extending piping as needed to connect fixtures and plumbing.Laying and connecting pipe in trenches by hand and machine.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 11% | 1.3 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Install pipe assemblies, fittings, valves, appliances such as dishwashers or water heaters, or fixtures such as sinks or toilets, using hand or power tools.Fitting the pipe, valves, appliances and fixtures by hand.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 1.7 h38 min to 4.2 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Plan pipe system layout, installation, or repair, according to specifications.Working out the routing and the sequence from the specifications.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 1.7 h50 min to 3.3 h | Documents 100% | 100%Half by now |
| Direct helpers engaged in pipe cutting, preassembly, or installation of plumbing systems or components.Leading helpers on the site as they cut and fit pipe.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 50 min13 min to 1.7 h | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Maintain or repair plumbing by replacing defective washers, replacing or mending broken pipes, or opening clogged drains.Replacing washers, mending pipe and clearing drains by hand.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, AutoBox 3L with Sentinel Automation Technology (StoneAge Inc.) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Locate and mark the position of pipe installations, connections, passage holes, or fixtures in structures, using measuring instruments such as rulers or levels.Measuring and marking where pipes and fixtures go on site.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, Dusty Robotics FieldPrint Platform (FieldPrinter) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 33 min13 min to 1.3 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Modify, clean, or maintain pipe systems, units, fittings, or related machines or equipment, using hand or power tools.Hands-on work on the pipes, fittings and machines.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, KRANENDONK Robotic Pipe Shop (pipe spool automation, ZEROGAP beveling) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Anchor steel supports from ceiling joists to hold pipes in place.Fixing hangers and supports to the joists by hand.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, fischer BauBot (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 50 min25 min to 2.1 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Weld small pipes or special piping, using specialized techniques, equipment, or materials, such as computer-assisted welding or microchip fabrication.Specialized welding on small or special pipe by hand.Done more than yearly by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Novarc Spool Welding Robot (SWR) with NovEye Autonomy Gen 2 (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 2.5 h1.3 h to 6.7 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Assemble pipe sections, tubing, or fittings, using couplings, clamps, screws, bolts, cement, plastic solvent, caulking, or soldering, brazing, or welding equipment.Joining pipe and fittings by hand, with solder, cement or welding.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 38 min13 min to 2.5 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Helpers--Pipelayers, Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters0% now, 0% by 2028
- Boilermakers3% now, 3% by 2028
- Pipelayers0% now, 0% by 2028
- Maintenance and Repair Workers, General11% now, 13% by 2028
- Septic Tank Servicers and Sewer Pipe Cleaners6% now, 6% by 2028
- Control and Valve Installers and Repairers, Except Mechanical Door1% now, 1% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 23% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 23% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Draw full scale pipe layouts (100% of the task's time now); Plan pipe layout and installation (100% of the task's time now); and Select pipe and materials to spec (70% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Install geothermal pipe systems; Install underground piping; and Install pipes, valves and fixtures. Together such tasks are about 74% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are the hands-on craft; judgment where errors are severe; and signing off under your license. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 77% of the working time stays with people, 22% becomes checking a model's work and 1% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 1%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 82% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 40% of the working time, 5% in any setting. Its index is 0.51 of 3. One example: Dusty Robotics FieldPrint Platform (FieldPrinter) for "mark out pipe positions". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 30 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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