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Solar Thermal Installers and Technicians

Install or repair solar energy systems designed to collect, store, and circulate solar-heated water for residential, commercial or industrial use.

$63,800 a year (for the broader BLS group this job sits in).

now
2%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 17%
  • 0%
  • 83%
1%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
April 2027

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 17% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 0%. Today's estimate: 2%.

0%5%10%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 0% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 0% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 0% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 0% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 0% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 2% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 21 tasks from .

TaskKind
Design active direct or indirect, passive direct or indirect, or pool solar systems.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 17%6.7 h3.3 h to 1.7 work days10%Half by Apr 2027
Install copper or plastic plumbing using pipes, fittings, pipe cutters, acetylene torches, solder, wire brushes, sand cloths, flux, plastic pipe cleaners, or plastic glue.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 9%2.1 h50 min to 4.2 hStays with people
Install solar collector mounting devices on tile, asphalt, shingle, or built-up gravel roofs, using appropriate materials and penetration methods.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 9%3.3 h1.7 h to 5 hStays with people
Perform routine maintenance or repairs to restore solar thermal systems to baseline operating conditions.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 7%1.7 h50 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Determine locations for installing solar subsystem components, including piping, water heaters, valves, and ancillary equipment.Done daily by most who do it. 6%1.7 h25 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Install flat-plat, evacuated glass, or concentrating solar collectors on mounting devices, using brackets or struts.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 6%2.5 h1.3 h to 4.2 hStays with people
Assess collector sites to ensure structural integrity of potential mounting surfaces or the best orientation and tilt for solar collectors.Done daily by most who do it. 6%1.7 h50 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Install plumbing, such as dip tubes, port fittings, drain tank valves, pressure temperature relief valves, or tanks, according to manufacturer specifications and building codes.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 4%1.7 h50 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Install circulating pumps using pipe, fittings, soldering equipment, electrical supplies, and hand tools.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 4%1.7 h50 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Cut, miter, and glue piping insulation to insulate plumbing pipes and fittings.Done daily by most who do it. 4%1.3 h25 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Connect water heaters and storage tanks to power and water sources.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 4%1.7 h50 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Apply weather seal, such as pipe flashings and sealants, to roof penetrations and structural devices.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 3%1.1 h25 min to 2.5 hStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025). Counts are for the broader BLS group this job sits in.

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025). Counts are for the broader BLS group this job sits in.