Emergency Management Directors
In short: today's best AI models could do about 48% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 74% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 23% of the time, stays with people.
Plan and direct disaster response or crisis management activities, provide disaster preparedness training, and prepare emergency plans and procedures for natural (e.g., hurricanes, floods, earthquakes), wartime, or technological (e.g., nuclear power plant emergencies or hazardous materials spills) disasters or hostage situations.
13,500 people do this job in the US. $93,330 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on19 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet12 h
- Stays with people9 h
Emergency Management Directors, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 19 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 12 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 9 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Prepare emergency situation status reports that describe response and recovery efforts, needs, and preliminary damage assessments (about 6 h); Coordinate disaster response or crisis management activities, such as ordering evacuations, opening public shelters, and implementing special needs plans and programs (about 4 h); Develop and maintain liaisons with municipalities, county departments, and similar entities to facilitate plan development, response effort coordination, and exchanges of personnel and equipment (about 2 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 77%
- 19%
- 4%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 14%. Today's estimate: 48%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 23 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.0073% to 0.0054% (released February and March 2025); 0.0018% to 0.0025% (August 2025 to February 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.0073% | 565 of 708 | 3 of 23 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.0054% | 571 of 703 | 2 of 23 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.0018% | 641 of 655 | 1 of 23 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.0037% | 601 of 672 | 2 of 23 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.0025% | 631 of 677 | 1 of 23 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 23 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 23 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 5% of this job's working time as physical work. For 1% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 1% in a purpose-built cell. 0.01 of 3, the 655th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 95%
- No robot shown 3%
- In a purpose-built cell 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 23 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prepare emergency situation status reports that describe response and recovery efforts, needs, and preliminary damage assessments.Done daily by most who do it. | 16% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | 96%Half by now | |
| Collaborate with other officials to prepare and analyze damage assessments following disasters or emergencies.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 13% | 5 h1.7 h to 2.1 work days | Stays with people | |
| Coordinate disaster response or crisis management activities, such as ordering evacuations, opening public shelters, and implementing special needs plans and programs.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 10% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 1.7 work days | 91%Half by now | |
| Prepare plans that outline operating procedures to be used in response to disasters or emergencies, such as hurricanes, nuclear accidents, and terrorist attacks, and in recovery from these events.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 10% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 3.3 work weeks | 5%Half by Apr 2028 | |
| Design and administer emergency or disaster preparedness training courses that teach people how to effectively respond to major emergencies and disasters.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 6% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks | 15%Half by Oct 2027 | |
| Develop instructional materials for the public and make presentations to citizens' groups to provide information on emergency plans and their implementation processes.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 4% | 6.7 h2.5 h to 2.1 work days | 76%Half by now | |
| Apply for federal funding for emergency-management-related needs, and administer and report on the progress of such grants.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 4% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 2.5 work weeks | 6%Half by Feb 2028 | |
| Keep informed of federal, state, and local regulations affecting emergency plans, and ensure that plans adhere to those regulations.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 4% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days | 80%Half by now | |
| Develop and maintain liaisons with municipalities, county departments, and similar entities to facilitate plan development, response effort coordination, and exchanges of personnel and equipment.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 4% | 1.7 h50 min to 5 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Attend meetings, conferences, and workshops related to emergency management to learn new information and to develop working relationships with other emergency management specialists.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 4% | 5 h1.3 h to 1.7 work days | 71%Half by now | |
| Consult with officials of local and area governments, schools, hospitals, and other institutions to determine their needs and capabilities in the event of a natural disaster or other emergency.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 4% | 2.5 h50 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Keep informed of activities or changes that could affect the likelihood of an emergency, response efforts, or plan implementation.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 4% | 50 min25 min to 2.5 h | 100%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Business Continuity Planners43% now, 91% by 2028
- Security Managers34% now, 56% by 2028
- Security Management Specialists45% now, 74% by 2028
- Health and Safety Engineers, Except Mining Safety Engineers and Inspectors35% now, 73% by 2028
- Medical and Health Services Managers31% now, 63% by 2028
- Management Analysts37% now, 85% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
- Local Government, excluding Schools and Hospitals7,500 people
- State Government, excluding Schools and Hospitals2,010 people
- General Medical and Surgical Hospitals670 people
- Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools370 people
- Community Food and Housing, and Emergency and Other Relief Services340 people
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Emergency Management Directors is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 48% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 74% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (64% to 77% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Emergency Management Directors come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Prepare emergency situation status reports that describe response and recovery efforts, needs, and preliminary damage assessments (96% of the task's time now); Coordinate disaster response or crisis management activities, such as ordering evacuations, opening public shelters, and implementing special needs plans and programs (91% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); and Develop and maintain liaisons with municipalities, county departments, and similar entities to facilitate plan development, response effort coordination, and exchanges of personnel and equipment (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Emergency Management Directors stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Collaborate with other officials to prepare and analyze damage assessments following disasters or emergencies; Consult with officials of local and area governments, schools, hospitals, and other institutions to determine their needs and capabilities in the event of a natural disaster or other emergency; and Inspect facilities and equipment, such as emergency management centers and communications equipment, to determine their operational and functional capabilities in emergency situations. Together such tasks are about 23% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Emergency Management Directors?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Emergency Management Directors?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 5% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 1% of the working time. Its index is 0.01 of 3. One example: Sparrow for "inventory and distribute nuclear, biological, and chemical detection and contamination equipment, providing instruction in its maintenance and use". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 23 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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