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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN

Customs and Border Protection Officers

In short: today's best AI models could do about 32% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 39% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 61% of the time, stays with people.

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Investigate and inspect persons, common carriers, goods, and merchandise, arriving in or departing from the United States or between states to detect violations of immigration and customs laws and regulations.

$76,210 a year (for the broader BLS group this job sits in).

A typical 40-hour week

Not yet reviewed task by task
  • AI could take on13 h
  • A person checks AI's work0 h
  • Desk work AI can't do yet3 h
  • Stays with people24 h

Customs and Border Protection Officers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 13 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 3 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 24 hours stay with people.

The largest pieces: Institute civil and criminal prosecutions and cooperate with other law enforcement agencies in the investigation and prosecution of those in violation of immigration or customs laws (about 5 h); Determine duty and taxes to be paid on goods (about 3 h); Interpret and explain laws and regulations to travelers, prospective immigrants, shippers, and manufacturers (about 2 h).

Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.

now
32%

of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.

Kinds of work
  • 39%
  • 0%
  • 61%
12%

of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 39% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030
Change assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 32%.

0%10%20%30%40%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 1% within reacho3, April 2025: 4% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 6% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 9% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 9% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 10% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 11% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 18% within reachToday (estimate), November 2026: 32% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

Measured use over time

Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.053% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 225th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 1 of its 11 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.061% to 0.038% (released February and March 2025); 0.043% to 0.063% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.045% to 0.053% (April to May 2026).

0%0.05%0.1%20252026released February 2025: 0.061%released March 2025: 0.038%the week of Aug 4, 2025: 0.043%the week of Nov 13, 2025: 0.048%the week of Feb 5, 2026: 0.063%April 2026: 0.045%May 2026: 0.053%
Each dot is one release's sample. A line joins releases made by the same method; a change of method starts a new line. Point at a dot for its window.
Each release
ConversationsShareRankTasks seen
Released February 20250.061%244 of 7081 of 11
Released March 20250.038%311 of 7033 of 11
The week of Aug 4, 20250.043%258 of 6552 of 11
The week of Nov 13, 20250.048%243 of 6722 of 11
The week of Feb 5, 20260.063%224 of 6774 of 11
April 20260.045%229 of 4341 of 11
May 20260.053%225 of 4471 of 11

Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.

Robots and the physical work

Anthropic rates 37% of this job's working time as physical work. For 1% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 1% in a purpose-built cell. 0.01 of 3, the 657th highest of the 923 jobs.

  • Not physical 63%
  • No robot shown 36%
  • In a purpose-built cell 1%

Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.

The tasks

Sorted by . 11 tasks from .

TaskKind
Institute civil and criminal prosecutions and cooperate with other law enforcement agencies in the investigation and prosecution of those in violation of immigration or customs laws.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 20%5 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days67%Half by now
Examine immigration applications, visas, and passports and interview persons to determine eligibility for admission, residence, and travel in the U.S.Done hourly or more by most who do it. AI observed on this task.17%38 min13 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Locate and seize contraband, undeclared merchandise, and vehicles, aircraft, or boats that contain such merchandise.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating.15%2.5 h50 min to 1 work dayStays with people
Inspect cargo, baggage, and personal articles entering or leaving U.S. for compliance with revenue laws and U.S. customs regulations.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating.14%38 min13 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Detain persons found to be in violation of customs or immigration laws and arrange for legal action, such as deportation.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating.13%2.5 h50 min to 6.7 hStays with people
Determine duty and taxes to be paid on goods.Done daily by most who do it. 7%38 min8 min to 1.7 h99%Half by now
Interpret and explain laws and regulations to travelers, prospective immigrants, shippers, and manufacturers.Done daily by most who do it. 5%21 min8 min to 50 min100%Half by now
Record and report job-related activities, findings, transactions, violations, discrepancies, and decisions.Done daily by most who do it. 5%33 min13 min to 1.3 h100%Half by now
Collect samples of merchandise for examination, appraisal, or testing.Done more than yearly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Robotica ABOT M1 / ePack automated decant (FANUC robots) (Robotica, Inc. / FANUC America) (sold). Anthropic's rating.1%25 min8 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Investigate applications for duty refunds and petition for remission or mitigation of penalties when warranted.Done more than yearly by most who do it.0.6%2.1 h50 min to 5 h99%Half by now
Testify regarding decisions at immigration appeals or in federal court.Done yearly or less by most who do it. 0.5%2.5 h1.3 h to 6.7 hStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025). Counts are for the broader BLS group this job sits in.

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025). Counts are for the broader BLS group this job sits in.

Questions about this job

How much of the work of Customs and Border Protection Officers is within reach of AI now?
An estimated 32% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 39% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (38% to 39% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
Which tasks of Customs and Border Protection Officers come within reach first?
Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Institute civil and criminal prosecutions and cooperate with other law enforcement agencies in the investigation and prosecution of those in violation of immigration or customs laws (67% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Determine duty and taxes to be paid on goods (99% of the task's time now); and Interpret and explain laws and regulations to travelers, prospective immigrants, shippers, and manufacturers (100% of the task's time now).
Which tasks of Customs and Border Protection Officers stay with people?
Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Examine immigration applications, visas, and passports and interview persons to determine eligibility for admission, residence, and travel in the U.S; Locate and seize contraband, undeclared merchandise, and vehicles, aircraft, or boats that contain such merchandise; and Inspect cargo, baggage, and personal articles entering or leaving U.S. for compliance with revenue laws and U.S. customs regulations. Together such tasks are about 61% of the working time.
Do people already use AI for the work of Customs and Border Protection Officers?
In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.053% went to this job's tasks, the 225th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 1 of its 11 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 12%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
Can robots do the physical work of Customs and Border Protection Officers?
Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 37% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 1% of the working time. Its index is 0.01 of 3. One example: Robotica ABOT M1 / ePack automated decant (FANUC robots) for "collect samples of merchandise for examination, appraisal, or testing". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
How is this estimated?
From the 11 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.

How the estimates are made

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