Subsector, 532
Rental and Leasing Services
569,390 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $58,220 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 324 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 31%
- 21%
- 48%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 22% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 535,894 people in jobs so far, 94% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 173 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 146 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 102 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 18%
- 13%
- 10%
- 12%
- 47%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 535,894 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft253,257 (47%)
- Judgment where errors are severe180,855 (34%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself167,818 (31%)
- The conversations140,567 (26%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts133,543 (25%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization97,570 (18%)
- Running AI inside the business systems50,430 (9%)
- Signing off under your license3,570 (1%)
- Handling protected records1,360 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 28%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 48% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 34% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 18% in a purpose-built cell, 12% in a structured facility, 3% in any setting. 0.52 of 3.
- Not physical 52%
- No robot shown 15%
- In a purpose-built cell 18%
- In a structured facility 12%
- In any setting 3%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 85% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter and Rental Clerks | 85,700 | 23% | 40 million | $39K |
| General and Operations Managers | 30,740 | 45% | 29 million | $93K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 19,610 | 64% | 26 million | $40K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 15,510 | 59% | 19 million | $70K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers | 16,320 | 49% | 17 million | $58K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 7,330 | 88% | 13 million | $49K |
| Audio and Video Technicians | 12,140 | 48% | 12 million | $51K |
| Office Clerks, General | 9,710 | 56% | 11 million | $47K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers | 10,550 | 47% | 10 million | $79K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 9,480 | 46% | 9.1 million | $62K |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 25,320 | 14% | 7.3 million | $58K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 35,980 | 9% | 6.7 million | $40K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 186 smaller jobs (83,720 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Keep records of transactions and of the number of customers entering an establishment.Counter and Rental Clerks11 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare rental forms, obtaining customer signature and other information, such as required licenses.Counter and Rental Clerks9.8 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Reserve items for requested times and keep records of items rented.Counter and Rental Clerks7.3 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel6.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Rent items, arrange for provision of services to customers, and accept returns.Counter and Rental Clerks5.3 million hours30% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives4.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete contract forms, prepare change of address records, or issue service discontinuance orders, using computers.Customer Service Representatives4.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Direct and coordinate activities of businesses or departments concerned with the production, pricing, sales, or distribution of products.General and Operations Managers3.9 million hours40% of the task within reach
- Set prices or credit terms for goods or services, based on forecasts of customer demand.General and Operations Managers3.8 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Rental and Leasing Services is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 28% of the paid hours in Rental and Leasing Services are within reach of AI models now and 31% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Rental and Leasing Services carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Counter and Rental Clerks (85,700 people, 23% of their time, about 40 million hours a year); General and Operations Managers (30,740 people, 45% of their time, about 29 million hours a year); and Customer Service Representatives (19,610 people, 64% of their time, about 26 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Rental and Leasing Services carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Keep records of transactions and of the number of customers entering an establishment (Counter and Rental Clerks, about 11 million hours a year); Prepare rental forms, obtaining customer signature and other information, such as required licenses (Counter and Rental Clerks, about 9.8 million hours a year); and Reserve items for requested times and keep records of items rented (Counter and Rental Clerks, about 7.3 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Rental and Leasing Services learn first?
- Among the 535,894 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (253,257 people); judgment where errors are severe (180,855 people); and reviewing work you did not do yourself (167,818 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 68% of their working time stays with people, 22% becomes checking a model's work and 10% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Rental and Leasing Services (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 97% of its people, and 94% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.