Nonmetro area, Virginia
Northeast Virginia nonmetropolitan area
57,660 people work in this area, at mean pay of $64,250 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 20 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 39%
- 16%
- 45%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 16% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 17%. Today's estimate: 20%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 53% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Clerks, General | 1,010 | 54% | 1.1 million | $40K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 490 | 78% | 790,900 | $45K |
| Cashiers | 1,780 | 19% | 684,944 | $29K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 470 | 64% | 629,574 | $36K |
| General and Operations Managers | 1,240 | 23% | 588,061 | $90K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 540 | 43% | 478,484 | $46K |
| Retail Salespersons | 1,170 | 19% | 472,119 | $32K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 530 | 40% | 445,370 | $38K |
| Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education | 620 | 32% | 413,962 | $61K |
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 630 | 30% | 390,500 | $60K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers | 610 | 28% | 357,804 | $45K |
| Registered Nurses | 590 | 28% | 341,162 | $82K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 248 smaller jobs (22,970 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 85% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Develop and implement records management program for filing, protection, and retrieval of records, and assure compliance with program.Management Analysts280,471 hours76% of the task within reach
- Analyze problems to develop solutions involving computer hardware and software.Computer and Information Research Scientists274,115 hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers261,723 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General252,978 hours100% of the task within reach
- Apply theoretical expertise and innovation to create or apply new technology, such as adapting principles for applying computers to new uses.Computer and Information Research Scientists252,151 hours92% of the task within reach
- Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance.Software Developers245,744 hours100% of the task within reach
- Attend training classes to maintain certification licensure, keep abreast of new developments in the field, or maintain existing knowledge.A job in this area243,960 hours99% of the task within reach
- Analyze data gathered and develop solutions or alternative methods of proceeding.Management Analysts239,794 hours98% of the task within reach
- Conduct logical analyses of business, scientific, engineering, and other technical problems, formulating mathematical models of problems for solution by computers.Computer and Information Research Scientists206,862 hours75% of the task within reach
- Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers186,490 hours100% of the task within reach
Other areas in Virginia
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC763,060 people22% now, 36% by 2028
- Richmond, VA660,350 people23% now, 38% by 2028
- Roanoke, VA153,980 people23% now, 35% by 2028
- Southwest Virginia nonmetropolitan area116,480 people22% now, 31% by 2028
- Charlottesville, VA114,780 people23% now, 39% by 2028
- Southside Virginia nonmetropolitan area103,030 people21% now, 30% by 2028
- Lynchburg, VA97,190 people22% now, 33% by 2028
- Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA74,070 people21% now, 33% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works