Metro area, Virginia
Lynchburg, VA
97,190 people work in this area, at mean pay of $57,880 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 41 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 34%
- 18%
- 48%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 20%. Today's estimate: 22%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 52% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer Service Representatives | 1,220 | 64% | 1.6 million | $38K |
| Office Clerks, General | 1,440 | 54% | 1.6 million | $40K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 890 | 78% | 1.4 million | $47K |
| Registered Nurses | 2,200 | 28% | 1.3 million | $80K |
| Retail Salespersons | 2,950 | 19% | 1.2 million | $31K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 700 | 81% | 1.2 million | $43K |
| Cashiers | 2,810 | 19% | 1.1 million | $28K |
| General and Operations Managers | 1,930 | 23% | 915,289 | $95K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 2,080 | 19% | 822,016 | $31K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 910 | 43% | 806,335 | $42K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 840 | 40% | 705,870 | $40K |
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 1,080 | 30% | 669,428 | $50K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 302 smaller jobs (42,460 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 91% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers413,169 hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses368,604 hours60% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General360,682 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons357,453 hours50% of the task within reach
- Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers294,403 hours100% of the task within reach
- Operate computers programmed with accounting software to record, store, and analyze information.Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks289,435 hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform bookkeeping duties, such as credits or collections, preparing and sending financial statements or bills, and keeping financial records.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants280,396 hours100% of the task within reach
- Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives276,116 hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel264,835 hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete contract forms, prepare change of address records, or issue service discontinuance orders, using computers.Customer Service Representatives254,674 hours100% of the task within reach
Other areas in Virginia
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC763,060 people22% now, 36% by 2028
- Richmond, VA660,350 people23% now, 38% by 2028
- Roanoke, VA153,980 people23% now, 35% by 2028
- Southwest Virginia nonmetropolitan area116,480 people22% now, 31% by 2028
- Charlottesville, VA114,780 people23% now, 39% by 2028
- Southside Virginia nonmetropolitan area103,030 people21% now, 30% by 2028
- Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA74,070 people21% now, 33% by 2028
- Winchester, VA-WV67,740 people22% now, 34% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works