Metro area, Michigan
Bay City, MI
33,810 people work in this area, at mean pay of $57,190 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 16 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 31%
- 23%
- 45%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 22% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 27,830 people in jobs so far, 82% of the area's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 9.9 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 5.9 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 3.5 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 21%
- 11%
- 7%
- 17%
- 45%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 27,830 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft15,500 (56%)
- The conversations8,710 (31%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself8,330 (30%)
- Judgment where errors are severe8,095 (29%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts6,390 (23%)
- Signing off under your license2,885 (10%)
- Running AI inside the business systems2,710 (10%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization1,180 (4%)
- Handling protected records50 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 27%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 53% of the working time of the people in this area as physical work. For 39% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 27% in a purpose-built cell, 11% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.52 of 3.
- Not physical 47%
- No robot shown 13%
- In a purpose-built cell 27%
- In a structured facility 11%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 60% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Clerks, General | 770 | 56% | 904,904 | $38K |
| Registered Nurses | 810 | 37% | 620,008 | $98K |
| General and Operations Managers | 650 | 45% | 608,404 | $81K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 330 | 88% | 604,719 | $48K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 330 | 64% | 442,042 | $39K |
| Retail Salespersons | 920 | 23% | 440,128 | $33K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 240 | 84% | 421,325 | $43K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 330 | 59% | 402,919 | $44K |
| Cashiers | 910 | 19% | 350,168 | $29K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 340 | 48% | 340,870 | $37K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers | 330 | 49% | 337,710 | $43K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 240 | 60% | 297,523 | $34K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 152 smaller jobs (11,180 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 83% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General192,865 hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses135,781 hours60% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers133,802 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons111,477 hours50% of the task within reach
- Maintain and update filing, inventory, mailing, and database systems, either manually or using a computer.Office Clerks, General107,448 hours80% of the task within reach
- Operate computers programmed with accounting software to record, store, and analyze information.Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks107,319 hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform bookkeeping duties, such as credits or collections, preparing and sending financial statements or bills, and keeping financial records.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants96,136 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers95,340 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain accurate, detailed reports and records.Registered Nurses92,900 hours100% of the task within reach
- Type, format, proofread, and edit correspondence and other documents, from notes or dictating machines, using computers or typewriters.Office Clerks, General91,836 hours100% of the task within reach
The regional report on Bay City, MI
This page lists the largest jobs. The scan reads the whole workforce: every occupation BLS publishes here that the site has task data for, 83% of the people, at their local headcount and pay. The preview is free. The full report ($249, or included in Pro) is the report for a workforce board, a college or an economic development team: every occupation and the tasks behind its hours, what handing the work over would take, what changes for the people in each job and what they would learn, with the workbook and the slides to cite. Dated, with the method. For workforce boards and colleges
See what it holds first: the full report for Worcester, MA, Excel and slides.
Other areas in Michigan
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI1,904,530 people30% now, 37% by 2028
- Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI598,260 people28% now, 33% by 2028
- Ann Arbor, MI219,730 people33% now, 40% by 2028
- Lansing-East Lansing, MI217,180 people32% now, 39% by 2028
- Mid Michigan nonmetropolitan area152,580 people27% now, 31% by 2028
- Flint, MI135,040 people27% now, 31% by 2028
- Southern Michigan nonmetropolitan area134,800 people26% now, 30% by 2028
- Kalamazoo-Portage, MI121,790 people29% now, 34% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this area
- How much of the work in Bay City, MI is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 27% of the paid hours in Bay City, MI are within reach of AI models now and 31% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Bay City, MI carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Office Clerks, General (770 people, 56% of their time, about 904,904 hours a year); Registered Nurses (810 people, 37% of their time, about 620,006 hours a year); and General and Operations Managers (650 people, 45% of their time, about 608,400 hours a year).
- Which tasks in Bay City, MI carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports (Office Clerks, General, about 192,865 hours a year); Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals (Registered Nurses, about 135,781 hours a year); and Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions (Cashiers, about 133,802 hours a year).
- What would people working in Bay City, MI learn first?
- Among the 27,830 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (15,500 people); the conversations (8,710 people); and reviewing work you did not do yourself (8,330 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 68% of their working time stays with people, 24% becomes checking a model's work and 8% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Bay City, MI (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The area's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 83% of its people, and 82% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.