Physicists
In short: today's best AI models could do about 23% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 68% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 23% of the time, stays with people.
Conduct research into physical phenomena, develop theories on the basis of observation and experiments, and devise methods to apply physical laws and theories.
20,430 people do this job in the US. $172,250 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on9 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet22 h
- Stays with people9 h
Physicists, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 9 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 22 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 9 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Perform complex calculations as part of the analysis and evaluation of data, using computers (about 3 h); Describe and express observations and conclusions in mathematical terms (about 3 h); Analyze data from research conducted to detect and measure physical phenomena (about 2 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 77%
- 3%
- 20%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 1%. Today's estimate: 23%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.12% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 153rd largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 2 of its 16 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.037% to 0.08% (released February and March 2025); 0.032% to 0.018% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.12% to 0.12% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.037% | 321 of 708 | 2 of 16 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.08% | 191 of 703 | 4 of 16 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.032% | 299 of 655 | 3 of 16 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.034% | 304 of 672 | 3 of 16 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.018% | 408 of 677 | 2 of 16 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.12% | 146 of 434 | 2 of 16 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.12% | 153 of 447 | 2 of 16 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 12% of this job's working time as physical work. For 12% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 12% in a purpose-built cell. 0.12 of 3, the 506th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 88%
- In a purpose-built cell 12%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 16 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perform complex calculations as part of the analysis and evaluation of data, using computers.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 12% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.1 work days | 61%Half by now | |
| Analyze data from research conducted to detect and measure physical phenomena.Done daily by most who do it. | 12% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days | 31%Half by Mar 2027 | |
| Design computer simulations to model physical data so that it can be better understood.Done more than yearly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 12% | 2.8 work days6.7 h to 1.7 work weeks | 14%Half by Jul 2027 | |
| Develop theories and laws on the basis of observation and experiments, and apply these theories and laws to problems in areas such as nuclear energy, optics, and aerospace technology.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 12% | 1.7 work weeks1.7 work days to 1.6 work months | 1%Half by Oct 2028 | |
| Collaborate with other scientists in the design, development, and testing of experimental, industrial, or medical equipment, instrumentation, and procedures.Done daily by most who do it. | 10% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1 work week | Stays with people | |
| Observe the structure and properties of matter, and the transformation and propagation of energy, using equipment such as masers, lasers, and telescopes, to explore and identify the basic principles governing these phenomena.Done more than yearly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, AI-Driven Robotics for Optics platform (MIT) (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 10% | 1.7 work days4.2 h to 1 work week | Stays with people | |
| Describe and express observations and conclusions in mathematical terms.Done daily by most who do it. | 9% | 5 h1.7 h to 1.6 work days | 83%Half by now | |
| Develop manufacturing, assembly, and fabrication processes of lasers, masers, infrared, and other light-emitting and light-sensitive devices.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 6% | 1.7 work weeks1.7 work days to 1.5 work months | 1%Half by Oct 2028 | |
| Report experimental results by writing papers for scientific journals or by presenting information at scientific conferences.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 5% | 2.1 work days6.7 h to 1 work week | 31%Half by Feb 2027 | |
| Conduct research pertaining to potential environmental impacts of atomic energy-related industrial development to determine licensing qualifications.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 4% | 1.7 work weeks1.7 work days to 1.2 work months | 1%Half by Jul 2028 | |
| Teach physics to students.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 3% | 2.5 h1.3 h to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Write research proposals to receive funding.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 2% | 3.1 work days1 work day to 1.7 work weeks | 13%Half by Jul 2027 |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Physicists is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 23% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 68% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (51% to 75% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Physicists come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Perform complex calculations as part of the analysis and evaluation of data, using computers (61% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Describe and express observations and conclusions in mathematical terms (83% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); and Analyze data from research conducted to detect and measure physical phenomena (31% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028).
- Which tasks of Physicists stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Collaborate with other scientists in the design, development, and testing of experimental, industrial, or medical equipment, instrumentation, and procedures; Observe the structure and properties of matter, and the transformation and propagation of energy, using equipment such as masers, lasers, and telescopes, to explore and identify the basic principles governing these phenomena; and Teach physics to students. Together such tasks are about 23% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Physicists?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.12% went to this job's tasks, the 153rd largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 2 of its 16 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 27%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Physicists?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 12% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 12% of the working time. Its index is 0.12 of 3. One example: AI-Driven Robotics for Optics platform for "observe the structure and properties of matter, and the transformation and propagation of energy, using equipment such as masers, lasers, and telescopes, to explore and identify the basic principles governing these phenomena". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 16 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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