Physicists
Conduct research into physical phenomena, develop theories on the basis of observation and experiments, and devise methods to apply physical laws and theories.
20,430 people do this job in the US. $172,250 a year.
of the working time. Estimate.
- 77%
- 3%
- 20%
Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 1%. Today's estimate: 3%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
The tasks
Sorted by . 16 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perform complex calculations as part of the analysis and evaluation of data, using computers.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 12% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.1 work days | 9%Half by Aug 2027 | |
| Analyze data from research conducted to detect and measure physical phenomena.Done daily by most who do it. | 12% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days | 2%Half by Feb 2028 | |
| Design computer simulations to model physical data so that it can be better understood.Done more than yearly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 12% | 2.8 work days6.7 h to 1.7 work weeks | 0%Half by Jul 2028 | |
| Develop theories and laws on the basis of observation and experiments, and apply these theories and laws to problems in areas such as nuclear energy, optics, and aerospace technology.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 12% | 1.7 work weeks1.7 work days to 1.6 work months | 0%Half by Oct 2029 | |
| Collaborate with other scientists in the design, development, and testing of experimental, industrial, or medical equipment, instrumentation, and procedures.Done daily by most who do it. | 10% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1 work week | Stays with people | |
| Observe the structure and properties of matter, and the transformation and propagation of energy, using equipment such as masers, lasers, and telescopes, to explore and identify the basic principles governing these phenomena.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 10% | 1.7 work days4.2 h to 1 work week | Stays with people | |
| Describe and express observations and conclusions in mathematical terms.Done daily by most who do it. | 9% | 5 h1.7 h to 1.6 work days | 17%Half by Apr 2027 | |
| Develop manufacturing, assembly, and fabrication processes of lasers, masers, infrared, and other light-emitting and light-sensitive devices.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 6% | 1.7 work weeks1.7 work days to 1.5 work months | 0%Half by Oct 2029 | |
| Report experimental results by writing papers for scientific journals or by presenting information at scientific conferences.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 5% | 2.1 work days6.7 h to 1 work week | 1%Half by Feb 2028 | |
| Conduct research pertaining to potential environmental impacts of atomic energy-related industrial development to determine licensing qualifications.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 4% | 1.7 work weeks1.7 work days to 1.2 work months | 0%Half by Jul 2029 | |
| Teach physics to students.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 3% | 2.5 h1.3 h to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Write research proposals to receive funding.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 2% | 3.1 work days1 work day to 1.7 work weeks | 0%Half by Jul 2028 |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).