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Music Directors and Composers

Conduct, direct, plan, and lead instrumental or vocal performances by musical artists or groups, such as orchestras, bands, choirs, and glee clubs; or create original works of music.

12,540 people do this job in the US. $73,710 a year.

now
13%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 95%
  • 2%
  • 4%
4%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
December 2027

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 95% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 8%. Today's estimate: 13%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 0% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 1% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 1% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 1% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 1% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 8% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 13% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 30 tasks from .

TaskKind
Apply elements of music theory to create musical and tonal structures, including harmonies and melodies.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 7%6.7 h1.7 h to 3.1 work days7%Half by Nov 2027
Write musical scores for orchestras, bands, choral groups, or individual instrumentalists or vocalists, using knowledge of music theory and of instrumental and vocal capabilities.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 7%4.2 work days6.7 h to 3.3 work weeks0%Half by Apr 2029
Produce recordings of music.7%4.2 work days6.7 h to 3.3 work weeks0%Half by Apr 2029
Create original musical forms, or write within circumscribed musical forms such as sonatas, symphonies, or operas.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 7%2.1 work weeks1 work day to 2.3 work months0%Half by Aug 2030
Fill in details of orchestral sketches, such as adding vocal parts to scores.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 7%6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days8%Half by Sep 2027
Transcribe ideas for musical compositions into musical notation, using instruments, pen and paper, or computers.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 7%3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days25%Half by Mar 2027
Write music for commercial mediums, including advertising jingles or film soundtracks.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 7%2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks1%Half by Sep 2028
Determine voices, instruments, harmonic structures, rhythms, tempos, and tone balances required to achieve the effects desired in a musical composition.Done daily by most who do it. 6%3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days25%Half by Mar 2027
Experiment with different sounds, and types and pieces of music, using synthesizers and computers as necessary to test and evaluate ideas.Done daily by most who do it. 6%2.5 h50 min to 1 work day40%Half by Dec 2026
Arrange music composed by others, changing the music to achieve desired effects.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 5%1.3 work days1.7 h to 4.2 work days3%Half by May 2028
Perform administrative tasks such as applying for grants, developing budgets, negotiating contracts, and designing and printing programs and other promotional materials.Done more than monthly by most who do it. AI observed on this task.5%6.7 h1.7 h to 4.2 work days6%Half by Jan 2028
Rewrite original musical scores in different musical styles by changing rhythms, harmonies, or tempos.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 4%6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days8%Half by Sep 2027

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).