Makeup Artists, Theatrical and Performance
In short: today's best AI models could do about 35% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 54% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 46% of the time, stays with people.
Apply makeup to performers to reflect period, setting, and situation of their role.
2,340 people do this job in the US. $97,150 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on14 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet7 h
- Stays with people19 h
Makeup Artists, Theatrical and Performance, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 14 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 7 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 19 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Analyze a script, noting events that affect each character's appearance, so that plans can be made for each scene (about 4 h); Design rubber or plastic prostheses that can be used to change performers' appearances (about 2 h); Create character drawings or models, based upon independent research, to augment period production files (about 2 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 54%
- 3%
- 44%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 11%. Today's estimate: 35%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 22 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.016% to 0.037% (released February and March 2025); 0.0058% to 0.0064% (August 2025 to February 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.016% | 471 of 708 | 4 of 22 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.037% | 324 of 703 | 6 of 22 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.0058% | 520 of 655 | 2 of 22 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.0053% | 568 of 672 | 2 of 22 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.0064% | 546 of 677 | 3 of 22 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 22 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 22 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 71% of this job's working time as physical work. For 6% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 6% in a purpose-built cell. 0.06 of 3, the 566th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 29%
- No robot shown 66%
- In a purpose-built cell 6%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 22 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Design rubber or plastic prostheses that can be used to change performers' appearances.Done more than yearly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 21% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 1 work week | 28%Half by Apr 2027 | |
| Analyze a script, noting events that affect each character's appearance, so that plans can be made for each scene.Done daily by most who do it. | 13% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days | 80%Half by now | |
| Attach prostheses to performers and apply makeup to create special features or effects, such as scars, aging, or illness.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 8% | 2.1 h38 min to 4.2 h | Stays with people | |
| Apply makeup to enhance or alter the appearance of people appearing in productions such as movies.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 50 min25 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Write makeup sheets and take photos to document specific looks and the products used to achieve the looks.Done daily by most who do it. | 6% | 1.1 h25 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Create character drawings or models, based upon independent research, to augment period production files.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 5% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 1 work day | 99%Half by now | |
| Clean supplies such as makeup brushes.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 5% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Stays with people | |
| Establish budgets, and work within budgetary limits.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 3.3 h50 min to 6.7 h | 91%Half by now | |
| Select desired makeup shades from stock, or mix oil, grease, and coloring to achieve specific color effects.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Lancome Le Teint Particulier custom-made foundation blending machine (L'Oreal Technology Incubator) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 25 min8 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Alter or maintain makeup during productions as necessary to compensate for lighting changes or to achieve continuity of effect.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 25 min8 min to 50 min | Stays with people | |
| Duplicate work precisely to replicate characters' appearances on a daily basis.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Evaluate environmental characteristics, such as venue size and lighting plans, to determine makeup requirements.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 50 min17 min to 1.7 h | 100%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists8% now, 8% by 2028
- Skincare Specialists10% now, 10% by 2028
- Costume Attendants14% now, 14% by 2028
- Manicurists and Pedicurists7% now, 7% by 2028
- Painting, Coating, and Decorating Workers0% now, 0% by 2028
- Fine Artists, Including Painters, Sculptors, and Illustrators29% now, 42% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Makeup Artists, Theatrical and Performance is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 35% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 54% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (50% to 54% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Makeup Artists, Theatrical and Performance come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Analyze a script, noting events that affect each character's appearance, so that plans can be made for each scene (80% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Design rubber or plastic prostheses that can be used to change performers' appearances (28% of the task's time now, 99% by the end of 2028); and Create character drawings or models, based upon independent research, to augment period production files (99% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Makeup Artists, Theatrical and Performance stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Attach prostheses to performers and apply makeup to create special features or effects, such as scars, aging, or illness; Apply makeup to enhance or alter the appearance of people appearing in productions such as movies; and Write makeup sheets and take photos to document specific looks and the products used to achieve the looks. Together such tasks are about 46% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Makeup Artists, Theatrical and Performance?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Makeup Artists, Theatrical and Performance?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 71% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 6% of the working time. Its index is 0.06 of 3. One example: Lancome Le Teint Particulier custom-made foundation blending machine (L'Oreal Technology Incubator) for "select desired makeup shades from stock, or mix oil, grease, and coloring to achieve specific color effects". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 22 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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