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Makeup Artists, Theatrical and Performance

Apply makeup to performers to reflect period, setting, and situation of their role.

2,340 people do this job in the US. $97,150 a year.

now
16%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 54%
  • 3%
  • 44%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
May 2027

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 54% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 11%. Today's estimate: 16%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 1% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 1% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 2% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 2% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 3% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 3% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 11% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 16% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 22 tasks from .

TaskKind
Design rubber or plastic prostheses that can be used to change performers' appearances.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 21%1.7 work days3.3 h to 1 work week2%Half by Apr 2028
Analyze a script, noting events that affect each character's appearance, so that plans can be made for each scene.Done daily by most who do it. 13%3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days25%Half by Mar 2027
Attach prostheses to performers and apply makeup to create special features or effects, such as scars, aging, or illness.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 8%2.1 h38 min to 4.2 hStays with people
Apply makeup to enhance or alter the appearance of people appearing in productions such as movies.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 7%50 min25 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Write makeup sheets and take photos to document specific looks and the products used to achieve the looks.Done daily by most who do it. 6%1.1 h25 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Create character drawings or models, based upon independent research, to augment period production files.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 5%3.3 h1.7 h to 1 work day43%Half by Oct 2026
Clean supplies such as makeup brushes.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 5%25 min13 min to 50 minStays with people
Establish budgets, and work within budgetary limits.Done daily by most who do it. 5%3.3 h50 min to 6.7 h32%Half by Jan 2027
Select desired makeup shades from stock, or mix oil, grease, and coloring to achieve specific color effects.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 4%25 min8 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Alter or maintain makeup during productions as necessary to compensate for lighting changes or to achieve continuity of effect.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 4%25 min8 min to 50 minStays with people
Duplicate work precisely to replicate characters' appearances on a daily basis.Done daily by most who do it. 3%50 min25 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Evaluate environmental characteristics, such as venue size and lighting plans, to determine makeup requirements.Done daily by most who do it. 3%50 min17 min to 1.7 h96%Half by now

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).