Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and Geographers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 20% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 80% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 12% of the time, stays with people.
Study the composition, structure, and other physical aspects of the Earth. May use geological, physics, and mathematics knowledge in exploration for oil, gas, minerals, or underground water; or in waste disposal, land reclamation, or other environmental problems. May study the Earth's internal composition, atmospheres, and oceans, and its magnetic, electrical, and gravitational forces. Includes mineralogists, paleontologists, stratigraphers, geodesists, and seismologists.
23,470 people do this job in the US. $101,920 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on8 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet27 h
- Stays with people5 h
Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and Geographers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 8 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 27 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 5 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Communicate geological findings by writing research papers, participating in conferences, or teaching geological science at universities (about 2 h); Analyze and interpret geological data, using computer software (about 1 h); Analyze and interpret geological, geochemical, or geophysical information from sources, such as survey data, well logs, bore holes, or aerial photos (under an hour).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 88%
- 1%
- 11%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 2%. Today's estimate: 20%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 32 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.053% to 0.083% (released February and March 2025); 0.061% to 0.098% (August 2025 to February 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.053% | 269 of 708 | 4 of 32 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.083% | 187 of 703 | 5 of 32 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.061% | 214 of 655 | 3 of 32 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.098% | 154 of 672 | 4 of 32 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.098% | 166 of 677 | 4 of 32 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 32 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 32 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 30% of this job's working time as physical work. For 12% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 12% in a purpose-built cell. 0.12 of 3, the 505th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 70%
- No robot shown 18%
- In a purpose-built cell 12%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 32 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analyze and interpret geological data, using computer software.Done daily by most who do it. | 8% | 5 h50 min to 2.5 work days | 44%Half by Dec 2026 | |
| Communicate geological findings by writing research papers, participating in conferences, or teaching geological science at universities.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 8% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | 55%Half by now | |
| Locate and estimate probable natural gas, oil, or mineral ore deposits or underground water resources, using aerial photographs, charts, or research or survey results.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 7% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks | 15%Half by Oct 2027 | |
| Study historical climate change indicators found in locations, such as ice sheets or rock formations to develop climate change models.Done more than yearly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 3.3 work weeks | 5%Half by Apr 2028 | |
| Prepare geological maps, cross-sectional diagrams, charts, or reports concerning mineral extraction, land use, or resource management, using results of fieldwork or laboratory research.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 6% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 1 work week | 28%Half by Apr 2027 | |
| Conduct geological or geophysical studies to provide information for use in regional development, site selection, or development of public works projects.Done more than yearly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 3.3 work weeks | 5%Half by Apr 2028 | |
| Research geomechanical or geochemical processes to be used in carbon sequestration projects.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 5% | 1.7 work weeks2.1 work days to 4.2 work weeks | 1%Half by May 2028 | |
| Analyze and interpret geological, geochemical, or geophysical information from sources, such as survey data, well logs, bore holes, or aerial photos.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 5% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 4.2 work days | 40%Half by Jan 2027 | |
| Plan or conduct geological, geochemical, or geophysical field studies or surveys, sample collection, or drilling and testing programs used to collect data for research or application.Done more than yearly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks | Stays with people | |
| Develop strategies for more environmentally friendly resource extraction and reclamation.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 5% | 3.3 work days6.7 h to 1.7 work weeks | 10%Half by Sep 2027 | |
| Determine methods to incorporate geomethane or methane hydrates into global energy production or evaluate the potential environmental impacts of such incorporation.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 4% | 1.7 work weeks2.1 work days to 4.2 work weeks | 1%Half by May 2028 | |
| Develop applied software for the analysis and interpretation of geological data.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 4% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 3.3 work weeks | 5%Half by Apr 2028 |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and Geographers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 20% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 80% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (53% to 88% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and Geographers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Communicate geological findings by writing research papers, participating in conferences, or teaching geological science at universities (55% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Analyze and interpret geological data, using computer software (44% of the task's time now, 99% by the end of 2028); and Analyze and interpret geological, geochemical, or geophysical information from sources, such as survey data, well logs, bore holes, or aerial photos (40% of the task's time now, 99% by the end of 2028).
- Which tasks of Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and Geographers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Plan or conduct geological, geochemical, or geophysical field studies or surveys, sample collection, or drilling and testing programs used to collect data for research or application; Investigate the composition, structure, or history of the Earth's crust through the collection, examination, measurement, or classification of soils, minerals, rocks, or fossil remains; and Design geological mine maps, monitor mine structural integrity, or advise and monitor mining crews. Together such tasks are about 12% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and Geographers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 4%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and Geographers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 30% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 12% of the working time. Its index is 0.12 of 3. One example: TESCAN TIMA-X with AutoLoader for "investigate the composition, structure, or history of the earth's crust through the collection, examination, measurement, or classification of soils, minerals, rocks, or fossil remains". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 32 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
This job in your state or metro area
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.
Your own version of this job
The page above is the occupation. Your job is your title and what you actually do: give both, and they are read against these tasks in your browser, nothing sent anywhere. The headline is free: how much of your working time is within reach now and by the end of 2028, and how many of the tasks your description names.
This occupation has not been reviewed task by task yet, so the full personal report is not offered for it; 402 of 923 occupations are reviewed so far, largest first.