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Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining

Operate or tend machinery at surface mining site, equipped with scoops, shovels, or buckets to excavate and load loose materials.

34,480 people do this job in the US. $57,430 a year.

now
10%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 10%
  • 0%
  • 90%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 10% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 10%. Today's estimate: 10%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 1% within reacho3, April 2025: 2% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 2% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 4% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 4% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 6% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 6% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 10% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 10% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 16 tasks from .

TaskKind
Move levers, depress foot pedals, and turn dials to operate power machinery, such as power shovels, stripping shovels, scraper loaders, or backhoes.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 19%50 min25 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Operate machinery to perform activities such as backfilling excavations, vibrating or breaking rock or concrete, or making winter roads.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 18%1.7 h50 min to 4.2 hStays with people
Create or maintain inclines or ramps.Done daily by most who do it. 10%2.5 h50 min to 5 hStays with people
Observe hand signals, grade stakes, or other markings when operating machines so that work can be performed to specifications.Done daily by most who do it. 10%50 min13 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Become familiar with digging plans, machine capabilities and limitations, and efficient and safe digging procedures in a given application.Done daily by most who do it. 9%50 min25 min to 1.7 h99%Half by now
Handle slides, mud, or pit cleanings or maintenance.Done daily by most who do it. 8%1.7 h38 min to 4.2 hStays with people
Move materials over short distances, such as around a construction site, factory, or warehouse.Done daily by most who do it. 7%50 min25 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Perform manual labor to prepare or finish sites, such as shoveling materials by hand.Done daily by most who do it.4%50 min17 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Adjust dig face angles for varying overburden depths and set lengths.Done daily by most who do it.3%38 min13 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Set up or inspect equipment prior to operation.Done daily by most who do it. 3%25 min13 min to 50 minStays with people
Lubricate, adjust, or repair machinery and replace parts, such as gears, bearings, or bucket teeth.Done daily by most who do it. 3%50 min25 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Drive machines to work sites.Done daily by most who do it.2%38 min13 min to 1.7 hStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).