Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining
In short: today's best AI models could do about 10% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 90% of the time, stays with people.
Operate or tend machinery at surface mining site, equipped with scoops, shovels, or buckets to excavate and load loose materials.
34,480 people do this job in the US. $57,430 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on4 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people36 h
Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 4 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 36 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Become familiar with digging plans, machine capabilities and limitations, and efficient and safe digging procedures in a given application (about 4 h); Receive written or oral instructions regarding material movement or excavation (under an hour).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 10%
- 0%
- 90%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 10%. Today's estimate: 10%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 16 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.016% to 0.0064% (released February and March 2025).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.016% | 477 of 708 | 2 of 16 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.0064% | 559 of 703 | 3 of 16 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | none | n/a | 0 of 16 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 16 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 16 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 16 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 16 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 91% of this job's working time as physical work. For 84% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 14% in a purpose-built cell, 64% in a structured facility, 7% in any setting. 1.61 of 3, the 13th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 9%
- No robot shown 7%
- In a purpose-built cell 14%
- In a structured facility 64%
- In any setting 7%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 16 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Move levers, depress foot pedals, and turn dials to operate power machinery, such as power shovels, stripping shovels, scraper loaders, or backhoes.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Sandvik AutoMine AutoLoad 2.0 (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 19% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Operate machinery to perform activities such as backfilling excavations, vibrating or breaking rock or concrete, or making winter roads.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Cat MineStar Command for dozing (semi-autonomous tractor system, SATS) (Caterpillar) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 18% | 1.7 h50 min to 4.2 h | Stays with people | |
| Create or maintain inclines or ramps.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, SHANTUI DE26-X3 unmanned electric bulldozer (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 10% | 2.5 h50 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Observe hand signals, grade stakes, or other markings when operating machines so that work can be performed to specifications.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, Bedrock Operator (autonomous excavator retrofit) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 10% | 50 min13 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Become familiar with digging plans, machine capabilities and limitations, and efficient and safe digging procedures in a given application.Done daily by most who do it. | 9% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Handle slides, mud, or pit cleanings or maintenance.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Sandvik AutoMine AutoLoad 2.0 (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 8% | 1.7 h38 min to 4.2 h | Stays with people | |
| Move materials over short distances, such as around a construction site, factory, or warehouse.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Aramac L140B loader with sensmore automation (Aramine / sensmore) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 50 min25 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Perform manual labor to prepare or finish sites, such as shoveling materials by hand.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Autonomous Excavator System (AES) (Baidu Research Robotics and Auto-Driving Lab / University of Maryland) (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 50 min17 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Adjust dig face angles for varying overburden depths and set lengths.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Bedrock Operator (autonomous excavator retrofit) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Set up or inspect equipment prior to operation.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Stays with people | |
| Lubricate, adjust, or repair machinery and replace parts, such as gears, bearings, or bucket teeth.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, SKF Lincoln P203 progressive automatic lubrication system (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 50 min25 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Drive machines to work sites.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a structured facility, Cat MineStar Command for hauling (Cat 777G autonomous trucks) (Caterpillar) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators3% now, 3% by 2028
- Construction Laborers1% now, 1% by 2028
- Hoist and Winch Operators0% now, 0% by 2028
- Continuous Mining Machine Operators0% now, 0% by 2028
- Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except Engines6% now, 6% by 2028
- Crane and Tower Operators8% now, 8% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 10% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 10% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Become familiar with digging plans, machine capabilities and limitations, and efficient and safe digging procedures in a given application (100% of the task's time now); and Receive written or oral instructions regarding material movement or excavation (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Move levers, depress foot pedals, and turn dials to operate power machinery, such as power shovels, stripping shovels, scraper loaders, or backhoes; Operate machinery to perform activities such as backfilling excavations, vibrating or breaking rock or concrete, or making winter roads; and Create or maintain inclines or ramps. Together such tasks are about 90% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 91% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 84% of the working time, 7% in any setting. Its index is 1.61 of 3. One example: Bedrock Operator (autonomous excavator retrofit) for "observe hand signals, grade stakes, or other markings when operating machines so that work can be performed to specifications". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 16 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
This job in your state or metro area
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.
Your own version of this job
The page above is the occupation. Your job is your title and what you actually do: give both, and they are read against these tasks in your browser, nothing sent anywhere. The headline is free: how much of your working time is within reach now and by the end of 2028, and how many of the tasks your description names.
This occupation has not been reviewed task by task yet, so the full personal report is not offered for it; 402 of 923 occupations are reviewed so far, largest first.