Industry group, 2121
Coal Mining
39,760 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $84,180 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 11 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 18%
- 9%
- 74%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 13% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 23,510 people in jobs so far, 59% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 6.9 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 2.8 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 1.7 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 16%
- 6%
- 4%
- 9%
- 64%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 23,510 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft15,980 (68%)
- Judgment where errors are severe12,085 (51%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself7,820 (33%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts3,595 (15%)
- The conversations3,370 (14%)
- Signing off under your license2,280 (10%)
- Running AI inside the business systems730 (3%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 10%. Today's estimate: 15%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 73% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 56% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 26% in a purpose-built cell, 26% in a structured facility, 4% in any setting. 0.89 of 3.
- Not physical 27%
- No robot shown 17%
- In a purpose-built cell 26%
- In a structured facility 26%
- In any setting 4%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers | 3,050 | 32% | 2 million | $125K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers | 1,010 | 47% | 989,486 | $123K |
| Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining | 3,190 | 10% | 690,061 | $70K |
| Electricians | 2,000 | 12% | 490,881 | $84K |
| General and Operations Managers | 500 | 45% | 468,003 | $164K |
| Industrial Production Managers | 420 | 51% | 446,416 | $128K |
| Industrial Machinery Mechanics | 1,560 | 13% | 415,334 | $73K |
| Loading and Moving Machine Operators, Underground Mining | 3,550 | 5% | 347,048 | $75K |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 1,180 | 14% | 338,707 | $70K |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 210 | 73% | 317,991 | $62K |
| Occupational Health and Safety Technicians | 270 | 56% | 311,690 | $90K |
| Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators | 4,790 | 3% | 298,896 | $74K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 41 smaller jobs (1,870 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 94% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Estimate material or worker requirements to complete jobs.First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers708,688 hours100% of the task within reach
- Become familiar with digging plans, machine capabilities and limitations, and efficient and safe digging procedures in a given application.Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining629,680 hours100% of the task within reach
- Read specifications, such as blueprints, to determine construction requirements or to plan procedures.First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers356,152 hours70% of the task within reach
- Develop or implement electronic maintenance programs or computer information management systems.First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers337,408 hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze worker or production problems and recommend solutions, such as improving production methods or implementing motivational plans.First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers313,000 hours60% of the task within reach
- Supervise, coordinate, or schedule the activities of construction or extractive workers.First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers224,121 hours20% of the task within reach
- Maintain records of materials moved.Loading and Moving Machine Operators, Underground Mining218,197 hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze test results, machine error messages, or information obtained from operators to diagnose equipment problems.Industrial Machinery Mechanics198,244 hours70% of the task within reach
- Participate in budget preparation and administration, coordinating purchasing and documentation and monitoring departmental expenditures.First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers158,817 hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan layout and installation of electrical wiring, equipment, or fixtures, based on job specifications and local codes.Electricians150,725 hours80% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Coal Mining is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 15% of the paid hours in Coal Mining are within reach of AI models now and 17% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (17% to 18% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Coal Mining carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers (3,050 people, 32% of their time, about 2 million hours a year); First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers (1,010 people, 47% of their time, about 989,477 hours a year); and Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining (3,190 people, 10% of their time, about 690,061 hours a year).
- Which tasks in Coal Mining carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Estimate material or worker requirements to complete jobs (First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers, about 708,688 hours a year); Become familiar with digging plans, machine capabilities and limitations, and efficient and safe digging procedures in a given application (Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining, about 629,680 hours a year); and Read specifications, such as blueprints, to determine construction requirements or to plan procedures (First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers, about 356,152 hours a year).
- What would people working in Coal Mining learn first?
- Among the 23,510 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (15,980 people); judgment where errors are severe (12,085 people); and reviewing work you did not do yourself (7,820 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 77% of their working time stays with people, 19% becomes checking a model's work and 4% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Coal Mining (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 94% of its people, and 59% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.