Industry group, 2121
Coal Mining
39,760 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $84,180 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 9.5 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 19%
- 7%
- 74%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 11% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 11%. Today's estimate: 12%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers | 3,050 | 27% | 1.7 million | $125K |
| Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators | 4,790 | 9% | 886,725 | $74K |
| Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining | 3,190 | 10% | 683,426 | $70K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers | 1,010 | 27% | 558,815 | $123K |
| Industrial Machinery Mechanics | 1,560 | 15% | 499,700 | $73K |
| Electricians | 2,000 | 9% | 378,561 | $84K |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 210 | 80% | 347,693 | $62K |
| Loading and Moving Machine Operators, Underground Mining | 3,550 | 5% | 347,048 | $75K |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 1,180 | 14% | 336,253 | $70K |
| Office Clerks, General | 250 | 54% | 282,360 | $48K |
| General and Operations Managers | 500 | 23% | 237,122 | $164K |
| Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers | 640 | 16% | 216,986 | $79K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 41 smaller jobs (1,870 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 94% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Estimate material or worker requirements to complete jobs.First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers708,686 hours100% of the task within reach
- Become familiar with digging plans, machine capabilities and limitations, and efficient and safe digging procedures in a given application.Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining629,680 hours100% of the task within reach
- Learn and follow safety regulations.Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators551,563 hours100% of the task within reach
- Read specifications, such as blueprints, to determine construction requirements or to plan procedures.First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers356,152 hours70% of the task within reach
- Develop or implement electronic maintenance programs or computer information management systems.First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers325,067 hours96% of the task within reach
- Analyze worker or production problems and recommend solutions, such as improving production methods or implementing motivational plans.First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers312,999 hours60% of the task within reach
- Analyze test results, machine error messages, or information obtained from operators to diagnose equipment problems.Industrial Machinery Mechanics283,206 hours100% of the task within reach
- Talk to clients and study instructions, plans, or diagrams to establish work requirements.Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators225,965 hours100% of the task within reach
- Supervise, coordinate, or schedule the activities of construction or extractive workers.First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers224,120 hours20% of the task within reach
- Maintain records of materials moved.Loading and Moving Machine Operators, Underground Mining218,197 hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works