Baristas
In short: today's best AI models could do about 12% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 88% of the time, stays with people.
Prepare or serve specialty coffee or other beverages. Serve food such as baked goods or sandwiches to patrons.
$31,200 a year (for the broader BLS group this job sits in).
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on5 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people35 h
Baristas, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 5 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 35 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Receive and process customer payments (about 2 h); Take customer orders and convey them to other employees for preparation (under an hour); Provide customers with product details, such as coffee blend or preparation descriptions (under an hour).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 12%
- 0%
- 88%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 10%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 12%. Today's estimate: 12%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 19 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.0051% to 0.0056% (released February and March 2025); 0.0097% to 0.025% (August 2025 to February 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.0051% | 601 of 708 | 1 of 19 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.0056% | 565 of 703 | 3 of 19 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.0097% | 458 of 655 | 2 of 19 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.013% | 442 of 672 | 3 of 19 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.025% | 363 of 677 | 3 of 19 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 19 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 19 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 89% of this job's working time as physical work. For 89% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 74% in a purpose-built cell, 15% in a structured facility. 1.04 of 3, the 99th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 11%
- In a purpose-built cell 74%
- In a structured facility 15%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 19 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean or sanitize work areas, utensils, or equipment.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Costa Coffee Creations robotic kiosk (Briggo-derived technology, with Delaware North) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 15% | 13 min4 min to 33 min | Stays with people | |
| Demonstrate the use of retail equipment, such as espresso machines.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 10% | 13 min4 min to 29 min | Stays with people | |
| Set up or restock product displays.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Chef Robotics piece-picking / baked goods tray assembly (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 9% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | Stays with people | |
| Clean service or seating areas.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, pi-0 (Physical Intelligence) on UR5e / bimanual fixed-arm workstations (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 9% | 13 min4 min to 29 min | Stays with people | |
| Order, receive, or stock supplies or retail products.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, ABB IRB 360 FlexPicker with PickMaster vision (CKF Systems integration) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 8% | 25 min8 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Stock customer service stations with paper products or beverage preparation items.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Telexistence TX SCARA (GORDON AI) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 8% | 13 min4 min to 21 min | Stays with people | |
| Wrap, label, or date food items for sale.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Schubert Flowmodul flow wrapper with pick-and-place robots (La Petite Bretonne installation) (Gerhard Schubert GmbH) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 13 min4 min to 25 min | Stays with people | |
| Prepare or serve menu items, such as sandwiches or salads.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, RoboBurger (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 7 min3 min to 13 min | Stays with people | |
| Prepare or serve hot or cold beverages, such as coffee, espresso drinks, blended coffees, or teas.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Artly Barista Bot (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 4 min3 min to 8 min | Stays with people | |
| Weigh, grind, or pack coffee beans for customers.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Turnkey coffee grinding and packing production lines (industrial grinders + automatic bag fillers + heat sealing/labeling) (Smart Pack) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 7 min3 min to 17 min | Stays with people | |
| Receive and process customer payments.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Cafe X robotic barista kiosk (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 3 min2 min to 4 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Take out garbage.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, State-of-the-art survey (Tesla Optimus, Loki Robotics) (Epoch AI) (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 6 min3 min to 13 min | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025). Counts are for the broader BLS group this job sits in.
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025). Counts are for the broader BLS group this job sits in.
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Baristas is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 12% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 12% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Baristas come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Receive and process customer payments (100% of the task's time now); Take customer orders and convey them to other employees for preparation (100% of the task's time now); and Provide customers with product details, such as coffee blend or preparation descriptions (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Baristas stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Clean or sanitize work areas, utensils, or equipment; Demonstrate the use of retail equipment, such as espresso machines; and Set up or restock product displays. Together such tasks are about 88% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Baristas?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Baristas?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 89% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 89% of the working time, 15% in a structured facility. Its index is 1.04 of 3. One example: Cafe X robotic barista kiosk for "receive and process customer payments". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 19 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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