Administrative Services Managers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 52% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 70% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 30% of the time, stays with people.
Plan, direct, or coordinate one or more administrative services of an organization, such as records and information management, mail distribution, and other office support services.
263,960 people do this job in the US. $114,130 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on2 h
- A person checks AI's work19 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet7 h
- Stays with people12 h
Administrative Services Managers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 2 hours, 19 hours become checking its work, 7 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 12 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Manage budgets (about 5 h, a person checks); Write operating standards (about 3 h, a person checks); Direct support services (about 3 h, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 58%
- 12%
- 23%
- 5%
- 2%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 52% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 11%. Today's estimate: 52%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.14% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 128th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 4 of its 18 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.001% to none (released February and March 2025); none to 0.00091% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.14% to 0.14% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.001% | 706 of 708 | 1 of 18 |
| Released March 2025 | none | n/a | 0 of 18 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | none | n/a | 0 of 18 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.0008% | 668 of 672 | 1 of 18 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.00091% | 671 of 677 | 1 of 18 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.14% | 132 of 434 | 4 of 18 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.14% | 128 of 447 | 4 of 18 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates almost none of this job's working time as physical work, so robots do not reach it.
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
30% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Direct support services, the conversation, 10%
- Supervise and train staff, the conversation, 4%
- Hire and dismiss staff, the conversation, 2%
- Plan with other department heads, the conversation, 2%
- Learn new office technology, the in-person work, 2%
- Represent the unit at meetings, the conversation, 2%
What becomes checking the machine
64% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it. Another 6% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
- Manage budgets, costly if wrong, 22%
- Improve office processes, costly if wrong, 11%
- Write operating standards, costly if wrong, 9%
- Direct support services, costly if wrong, 7%
- Prepare operational reports, costly if wrong, 4%
- Oversee payroll, costly if wrong, 4%
What to learn
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts. About 58% of the time is documents and data, the part models reach first: writing a clear brief, giving the right material, and checking what comes back.
- The conversations. About 28% of the time is conversation and in-person work, which this site leaves with people: listening, explaining, persuading, calming.
- Running AI inside the business systems. About 12% of the time is work inside business systems, which a model can do only once it is connected: knowing the systems well enough to set that up and watch it.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 18 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plan, administer, and control budgets for contracts, equipment, and supplies.Budgets at the desk, with the approvals entered.Done daily by most who do it. | 22% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | Documents 80%, systems 20% | 55%Half by now |
| Direct or coordinate the supportive services department of a business, agency, or organization.Mostly conversation with the staff, plus reading and deciding.Done daily by most who do it. | 17% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 1.3 work days | Conversation 60%, documents 40% | 39%Desk part half by now |
| Analyze internal processes and recommend and implement procedural or policy changes to improve operations, such as supply changes or the disposal of records.Analysis and the changes written up.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 11% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | Documents 100% | 55%Half by now |
| Develop operational standards and procedures for the work unit or department.Writing at the desk. | 9% | 6.7 h3.3 h to 2.1 work days | Documents 100% | 86%Half by now |
| Supervise administrative staff and provide training and orientation to new staff.Direction and orientation, mostly in conversation. | 5% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days | Conversation 60%, documents 20%, in person 20% | 16%Desk part half by now |
| Hire and terminate clerical and administrative personnel.Interviews and hard conversations, with the paperwork.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 4% | 6.7 h2.5 h to 2.1 work days | Conversation 60%, documents 40% | 30%Desk part half by now |
| Set goals and deadlines for the department.Goals worked out and agreed with the team.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 4% | 1.7 h38 min to 4.2 h | Documents 60%, conversation 40% | 60%Desk part half by now |
| Prepare and review operational reports and schedules to ensure accuracy and efficiency.Reports and schedules at the desk.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | Documents 80%, systems 20% | 94%Half by now |
| Acquire, distribute and store supplies.Orders placed and stock handled.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h | Systems 50%, hands-on 50% | 49%Desk part half by now |
| Meet with other departmental leaders to establish organizational goals, strategic plans, and objectives, as well as make decisions about personnel, resources, and space or equipment needs.Leadership meetings, with the plans. | 4% | 2.5 h50 min to 5 h | Conversation 70%, documents 30% | 30%Desk part half by now |
| Oversee payroll functions, such as maintaining timekeeping information and processing and submitting payroll.Reviewing the timekeeping and the payroll run. | 4% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | Systems 70%, documents 30% | 96%Half by now |
| Establish work procedures or schedules to organize the daily work of administrative staff.Procedures written and the schedule built. | 2% | 1.7 h50 min to 5 h | Documents 60%, systems 40% | 100%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers54% now, 58% by 2028
- General and Operations Managers45% now, 53% by 2028
- Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants64% now, 71% by 2028
- Project Management Specialists58% now, 65% by 2028
- Document Management Specialists70% now, 93% by 2028
- Compliance Managers42% now, 74% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Administrative Services Managers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 52% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 70% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (68% to 70% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Administrative Services Managers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Manage budgets (55% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Write operating standards (86% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); and Direct support services (39% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Administrative Services Managers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Learn new office technology; and Represent the unit at meetings. Together such tasks are about 5% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Administrative Services Managers learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are reviewing work you did not do yourself; briefing a model and checking its drafts; and the conversations. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 30% of the working time stays with people, 64% becomes checking a model's work and 6% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Administrative Services Managers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.14% went to this job's tasks, the 128th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 4 of its 18 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Administrative Services Managers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds almost none of the working time is physical work, so robots do not reach it.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 18 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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