Metro area, North Dakota

Minot, ND

33,260 people work in this area, at mean pay of $60,600 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.

now

21%

of the paid hours. Estimate.

$472M

a year: 12 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.

Kinds of work

of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 17% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.

Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.

Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030

Chosen to Ceiling: the share

DateNow

NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 21%.

Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

Where the hours are

Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 65% of the people.

	People			Pay here
Office Clerks, General	660	54%	745,431	$50K
Retail Salespersons	1,420	19%	572,999	$35K
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks	330	78%	532,647	$50K
Customer Service Representatives	390	64%	522,413	$45K
General and Operations Managers	950	23%	450,531	$93K
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive	440	43%	389,876	$47K
Registered Nurses	620	28%	358,510	$80K
Cashiers	850	19%	327,080	$31K
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers	880	14%	250,765	$61K
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education	400	30%	247,936	$61K
First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers	420	27%	233,252	$83K
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products	310	36%	230,839	$68K

People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 136 smaller jobs (9,690 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 84% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.

The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028

Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.

Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons
172,062 hours50% of the task within reach
Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General
165,313 hours100% of the task within reach
Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers
124,980 hours100% of the task within reach
Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar.Bartenders
124,934 hours50% of the task within reach
Direct and coordinate activities of businesses or departments concerned with the production, pricing, sales, or distribution of products.General and Operations Managers
121,476 hours40% of the task within reach
Set prices or credit terms for goods or services, based on forecasts of customer demand.General and Operations Managers
116,134 hours100% of the task within reach
Prepare staff work schedules and assign specific duties.General and Operations Managers
109,423 hours80% of the task within reach
Operate computers programmed with accounting software to record, store, and analyze information.Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks
107,319 hours100% of the task within reach
Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses
103,879 hours60% of the task within reach
Establish or implement departmental policies, goals, objectives, or procedures in conjunction with board members, organization officials, or staff members.General and Operations Managers
101,391 hours59% of the task within reach

Other areas in North Dakota

Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works