Physicians, Pathologists
Diagnose diseases and conduct lab tests using organs, body tissues, and fluids. Includes medical examiners.
11,110 people do this job in the US. $312,400 a year.
of the working time. Estimate.
- 61%
- 6%
- 32%
Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 28%. Today's estimate: 32%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
The tasks
Sorted by . 19 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Develop or adopt new tests or instruments to improve diagnosis of diseases.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 16% | 2.1 work days6.7 h to 1.7 work weeks | Stays with people | |
| Conduct research and present scientific findings.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 16% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 4.2 work weeks | 0%Half by May 2029 | |
| Manage medical laboratories.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 12% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work days | 21%Half by May 2027 | |
| Diagnose diseases or study medical conditions, using techniques such as gross pathology, histology, cytology, cytopathology, clinical chemistry, immunology, flow cytometry, or molecular biology.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 10% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Identify the etiology, pathogenesis, morphological change, and clinical significance of diseases.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 8% | 50 min17 min to 2.5 h | 87%Half by now | |
| Examine microscopic samples to identify diseases or other abnormalities.Done hourly or more by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 5% | 25 min8 min to 50 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Review cases by analyzing autopsies, laboratory findings, or case investigation reports.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 5% | 1.7 h25 min to 4.2 h | 57%Half by now | |
| Write pathology reports summarizing analyses, results, and conclusions.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 4% | 21 min8 min to 1.3 h | 98%Half by now | |
| Plan and supervise the work of the pathology staff, residents, or visiting pathologists.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Educate physicians, students, and other personnel in medical laboratory professions, such as medical technology, cytotechnology, or histotechnology.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 4% | 1.7 h38 min to 3.3 h | 80%Half by now | |
| Read current literature, talk with colleagues, or participate in professional organizations or conferences to keep abreast of developments in pathology.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 3% | 50 min25 min to 3.3 h | 89%Half by now | |
| Analyze and interpret results from tests, such as microbial or parasite tests, urine analyses, hormonal assays, fine needle aspirations (FNAs), and polymerase chain reactions (PCRs).Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 38 min13 min to 1.3 h | 98%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).