Cost Estimators
In short: today's best AI models could do about 49% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 90% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 10% of the time, stays with people.
Prepare cost estimates for product manufacturing, construction projects, or services to aid management in bidding on or determining price of product or service. May specialize according to particular service performed or type of product manufactured.
224,220 people do this job in the US. $78,740 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on1 h
- A person checks AI's work19 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet16 h
- Stays with people4 h
Cost Estimators, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 1 hours, 19 hours become checking its work, 16 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 4 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Take off estimates from blueprints (about 8 h, a person checks); Estimate for vendor selection (about 3 h, a person checks); Decide make or buy (about 1 h, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 85%
- 5%
- 9%
- 0%
- 1%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 49% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 5%. Today's estimate: 49%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 14 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.022% to 0.018% (released February and March 2025); 0.014% to 0.022% (August 2025 to February 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.022% | 433 of 708 | 2 of 14 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.018% | 434 of 703 | 4 of 14 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.014% | 409 of 655 | 3 of 14 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.015% | 430 of 672 | 3 of 14 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.022% | 389 of 677 | 4 of 14 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 14 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 14 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 4% of this job's working time as physical work. For 4% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 4% in a structured facility. 0.07 of 3, the 549th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 96%
- In a structured facility 4%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
10% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Confer on estimate changes, the conversation, 4%
- Run tenders and negotiate, the conversation, 3%
- Consult on estimates, the conversation, 2%
- Survey the site for estimating, the hands-on work, 1.0%
What becomes checking the machine
87% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it. Another 2% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
- Take off estimates from blueprints, costly if wrong, 38%
- Study standard hours and costs, costly if wrong, 16%
- Estimate for vendor selection, costly if wrong, 10%
- Decide make or buy, costly if wrong, 4%
- Set up cost reporting, costly if wrong, 4%
- Track costs against bids, costly if wrong, 4%
What to learn
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts. About 85% of the time is documents and data, the part models reach first: writing a clear brief, giving the right material, and checking what comes back.
- Dealing with people outside the organization. Customers, patients, suppliers or the public: trust with them is built by a person.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 14 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analyze blueprints and other documentation to prepare time, cost, materials, and labor estimates.Reading the drawings and working the quantities.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 38% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | Documents 100% | 55%Half by now |
| Conduct special studies to develop and establish standard hour and related cost data or to reduce cost.Analysis at the desk.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 16% | 2.5 work days6.7 h to 1.7 work weeks | Documents 100% | 18%Half by Jun 2027 |
| Prepare estimates for use in selecting vendors or subcontractors.Estimates at the desk.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 10% | 5 h1.3 h to 1.7 work days | Documents 100% | 71%Half by now |
| Establish and maintain tendering process, and conduct negotiations.The process on paper and the negotiations by phone and meeting.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 7% | 1.3 work days3.3 h to 3.3 work days | Documents 50%, conversation 50% | 25%Desk part half by now |
| Confer with engineers, architects, owners, contractors, and subcontractors on changes and adjustments to cost estimates.Calls and meetings.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 4% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | Conversation 100% | Stays with people |
| Review material and labor requirements to decide whether it is more cost-effective to produce or purchase components.Analysis at the desk.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 4% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days | Documents 100% | 80%Half by now |
| Set up cost monitoring and reporting systems and procedures.Design on paper and the systems built.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 4% | 1.3 work days3.3 h to 3.3 work days | Documents 60%, systems 40% | 50%Half by now |
| Assess cost effectiveness of products, projects or services, tracking actual costs relative to bids as the project develops.Analysis at the desk.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 4% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work days | Documents 100% | 71%Half by now |
| Collect historical cost data to estimate costs for current or future products.Pulling the past costs from the records.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 4% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days | Documents 60%, systems 40% | 80%Half by now |
| Prepare estimates used by management for purposes such as planning, organizing, and scheduling work.Estimates at the desk.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 3% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days | Documents 100% | 80%Half by now |
| Consult with clients, vendors, personnel in other departments, or construction foremen to discuss and formulate estimates and resolve issues.Conversations with the parties, with notes.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 2% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | Conversation 80%, documents 20% | 20%Desk part half by now |
| Prepare and maintain a directory of suppliers, contractors and subcontractors.Entries in the directory.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 2% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days | Systems 100% | 80%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Logistics Engineers30% now, 88% by 2028
- Civil Engineering Technologists and Technicians62% now, 82% by 2028
- Construction Managers38% now, 47% by 2028
- Industrial Engineers60% now, 86% by 2028
- Architectural and Engineering Managers41% now, 72% by 2028
- Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks72% now, 73% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Cost Estimators is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 49% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 90% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (84% to 90% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Cost Estimators come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Take off estimates from blueprints (55% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Estimate for vendor selection (71% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); and Decide make or buy (80% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028).
- Which tasks of Cost Estimators stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Confer on estimate changes. Together such tasks are about 4% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Cost Estimators learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are reviewing work you did not do yourself; briefing a model and checking its drafts; and dealing with people outside the organization. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 10% of the working time stays with people, 87% becomes checking a model's work and 2% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Cost Estimators?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Cost Estimators?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 4% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 4% of the working time, 4% in a structured facility. Its index is 0.07 of 3. One example: Spot with Orbit / autonomous inspection missions for "survey the site for estimating". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 14 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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