Industry group, 3212
Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Manufacturing
81,190 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $54,340 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 33 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 23%
- 13%
- 64%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 65,070 people in jobs so far, 80% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 21 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 8.8 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 5.5 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 18%
- 7%
- 5%
- 10%
- 60%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 65,070 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft48,303 (74%)
- The conversations18,227 (28%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself17,687 (27%)
- Judgment where errors are severe16,485 (25%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts12,878 (20%)
- Signing off under your license4,440 (7%)
- Running AI inside the business systems2,720 (4%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization1,980 (3%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 13%. Today's estimate: 20%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 70% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 65% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 48% in a purpose-built cell, 16% in a structured facility. 0.81 of 3.
- Not physical 30%
- No robot shown 6%
- In a purpose-built cell 48%
- In a structured facility 16%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 91% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 3,640 | 48% | 3.6 million | $65K |
| Team Assemblers | 15,570 | 11% | 3.5 million | $41K |
| Architectural and Civil Drafters | 1,560 | 73% | 2.4 million | $62K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 1,920 | 46% | 1.9 million | $64K |
| Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing | 7,690 | 9% | 1.4 million | $44K |
| General and Operations Managers | 1,420 | 45% | 1.3 million | $113K |
| Industrial Production Managers | 1,150 | 51% | 1.2 million | $101K |
| Office Clerks, General | 930 | 56% | 1.1 million | $47K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 5,380 | 9% | 1 million | $39K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 900 | 53% | 994,032 | $49K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 760 | 59% | 927,935 | $47K |
| Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks | 540 | 72% | 808,705 | $59K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 79 smaller jobs (6,710 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 95% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Review work orders and blueprints to ensure work is performed according to specifications.Team Assemblers1.4 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Complete production reports to communicate team production level to management.Team Assemblers1.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Determine work assignments and procedures.Team Assemblers994,562 hours50% of the task within reach
- Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers854,183 hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and develop new products and production processes.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers790,873 hours70% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand749,309 hours100% of the task within reach
- Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers578,894 hours100% of the task within reach
- Determine product specifications and materials, work methods, and machine setup requirements, according to blueprints, oral or written instructions, drawings, or work orders.Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing516,405 hours50% of the task within reach
- Produce drawings, using computer-assisted drafting systems (CAD) or drafting machines, or by hand, using compasses, dividers, protractors, triangles, and other drafting devices.Architectural and Civil Drafters470,723 hours100% of the task within reach
- Draw rough and detailed scale plans for foundations, buildings, and structures, based on preliminary concepts, sketches, engineering calculations, specification sheets, and other data.Architectural and Civil Drafters470,712 hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Manufacturing is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 20% of the paid hours in Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Manufacturing are within reach of AI models now and 23% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Manufacturing carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers (3,640 people, 48% of their time, about 3.6 million hours a year); Team Assemblers (15,570 people, 11% of their time, about 3.5 million hours a year); and Architectural and Civil Drafters (1,560 people, 73% of their time, about 2.4 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Manufacturing carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Review work orders and blueprints to ensure work is performed according to specifications (Team Assemblers, about 1.4 million hours a year); Complete production reports to communicate team production level to management (Team Assemblers, about 1.1 million hours a year); and Determine work assignments and procedures (Team Assemblers, about 994,562 hours a year).
- What would people working in Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Manufacturing learn first?
- Among the 65,070 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (48,303 people); the conversations (18,227 people); and reviewing work you did not do yourself (17,687 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 75% of their working time stays with people, 19% becomes checking a model's work and 6% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Manufacturing (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 95% of its people, and 80% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.