Roofers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 1% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 99% of the time, stays with people.
Cover roofs of structures with shingles, slate, asphalt, aluminum, wood, or related materials. May spray roofs, sidings, and walls with material to bind, seal, insulate, or soundproof sections of structures.
135,490 people do this job in the US. $55,440 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on0 h
- A person checks AI's work1 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people39 h
Roofers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 0 hours, 1 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 39 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Estimate materials and labor (under an hour, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 1%
- 0%
- 0%
- 0%
- 99%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 1% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 1%. Today's estimate: 1%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 25 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: none to 0.0018% (released February and March 2025); 0.0038% to 0.0052% (August 2025 to February 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | none | n/a | 0 of 25 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.0018% | 682 of 703 | 1 of 25 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.0038% | 562 of 655 | 1 of 25 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.0039% | 600 of 672 | 1 of 25 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.0052% | 569 of 677 | 1 of 25 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 25 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 25 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 97% of this job's working time as physical work. For 47% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 43% in a purpose-built cell, 4% in a structured facility. 0.51 of 3, the 307th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 3%
- No robot shown 50%
- In a purpose-built cell 43%
- In a structured facility 4%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
99% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Cover roofs with roofing materials, the hands-on work, 16%
- Install insulation on flat roofs, the hands-on work, 9%
- Lay asphalt and paper layers, the hands-on work, 9%
- Waterproof walls and foundations, the hands-on work, 9%
- Lay overlapping roofing layers, the hands-on work, 7%
- Apply reflective coatings, the hands-on work, 6%
What becomes checking the machine
1% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it.
- Estimate materials and labor, costly if wrong, 1%
What to learn
- The hands-on craft. About 99% of the time is hands-on work, which no model here does; robots are rated separately on this page.
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 25 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cover roofs or exterior walls of structures with slate, asphalt, aluminum, wood, gravel, gypsum, or related materials, using brushes, knives, punches, hammers, or other tools.Slate, asphalt, metal or wood laid with hand tools.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 16% | 1 work day3.3 h to 2.5 work days | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Install vapor barriers or layers of insulation on flat roofs.Vapor barriers and insulation laid.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 9% | 5 h1.7 h to 1 work day | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Apply alternate layers of hot asphalt or tar and roofing paper to roofs.Alternating hot asphalt and paper on the roof.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, CH-BMPL SBS/APP modified bitumen membrane production line (Shandong Chenhua Waterproof Co., Ltd.) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 9% | 6.7 h3.3 h to 1.3 work days | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Waterproof or damp-proof walls, floors, roofs, foundations, or basements by painting or spraying surfaces with waterproof coatings or by attaching waterproofing membranes to surfaces.Coatings painted or sprayed and membranes attached.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Spraybot / Spraybot Ultra (SprayWorks Equipment Group) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 9% | 5 h1.7 h to 1.7 work days | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Install partially overlapping layers of material over roof insulation surfaces, using chalk lines, gauges on shingling hatchets, or lines on shingles.Shingles and layers laid to chalk lines and gauges.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 5 h1.7 h to 1.3 work days | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Apply reflective roof coatings, such as special paints or single-ply roofing sheets, to existing roofs to reduce solar heat absorption.Coatings or sheets applied on the roof.Done yearly or less by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, RTSS robotic polyurea spray system (FANUC M-710iC/10L + Graco HFR) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 6.7 h3.3 h to 1.3 work days | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Install, repair, or replace single-ply roofing systems, using waterproof sheet materials such as modified plastics, elastomeric, or other asphaltic compositions.Sheet systems installed and repaired.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 6.7 h2.5 h to 2.1 work days | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Apply plastic coatings, membranes, fiberglass, or felt over sloped roofs before applying shingles.Coatings, membranes or felt laid before shingles.Done yearly or less by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 5 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Mop or pour hot asphalt or tar onto roof bases.Hot asphalt or tar mopped onto the base.Done more than weekly by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, APP/SBS modified bitumen membrane production line (coating die section) (Wuxi Chengming Machinery Plant) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 3.3 h50 min to 5 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Attach roofing paper to roofs in overlapping strips to form bases for other materials.Paper attached in overlapping strips.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Rufus (Renovate Robotics) (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 5 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Install attic ventilation systems, such as turbine vents, gable or ridge vents, or conventional or solar-powered exhaust fans.Vents and exhaust fans fitted on the roof.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Rufus (Renovate Robotics) (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 5 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Set up scaffolding to provide safe access to roofs.Scaffolding erected for roof access.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 2.5 h50 min to 5 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Helpers--Roofers0% now, 0% by 2028
- Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers5% now, 5% by 2028
- Insulation Workers, Floor, Ceiling, and Wall2% now, 2% by 2028
- Plasterers and Stucco Masons2% now, 2% by 2028
- Floor Layers, Except Carpet, Wood, and Hard Tiles3% now, 3% by 2028
- Insulation Workers, Mechanical19% now, 19% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Roofers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 1% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 1% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Roofers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Estimate materials and labor (70% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Roofers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Cover roofs with roofing materials; Install insulation on flat roofs; and Lay asphalt and paper layers. Together such tasks are about 98% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Roofers learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are the hands-on craft; judgment where errors are severe; and reviewing work you did not do yourself. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 99% of the working time stays with people, 1% becomes checking a model's work and 0% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Roofers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 2%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Roofers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 97% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 47% of the working time, 4% in a structured facility. Its index is 0.51 of 3. One example: EagleView Assess with Skydio House Scan (Skydio 2) for "inspect problem roofs". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 25 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.
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