Plasterers and Stucco Masons
In short: today's best AI models could do about 2% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 98% of the time, stays with people.
Apply interior or exterior plaster, cement, stucco, or similar materials. May also set ornamental plaster.
19,310 people do this job in the US. $57,660 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on1 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people39 h
Plasterers and Stucco Masons, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 1 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 39 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Determine materials needed to complete the job and place orders accordingly (under an hour).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 2%
- 0%
- 98%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 2%. Today's estimate: 2%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
None of this job's 15 tasks showed up in the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled in any of its 7 releases, from February 2025 to May 2026.
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 98% of this job's working time as physical work. For 84% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 69% in a purpose-built cell, 6% in a structured facility, 9% in any setting. 1.07 of 3, the 88th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 2%
- No robot shown 14%
- In a purpose-built cell 69%
- In a structured facility 6%
- In any setting 9%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 15 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apply insulation to building exteriors by installing prefabricated insulation systems over existing walls or by covering the outer wall with insulation board, reinforcing mesh, and a base coat.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 26% | 6.7 h3.3 h to 1.7 work days | Stays with people | |
| Apply coats of plaster or stucco to walls, ceilings, or partitions of buildings, using trowels, brushes, or spray guns.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Mortar spraying and plastering integrated robot (Wang, Xie, Chen et al.) (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 19% | 3.3 h50 min to 6.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Apply weatherproof, decorative coverings to exterior surfaces of buildings, such as by troweling or spraying on coats of stucco.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Okibo EG7 plastering/painting robot (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 15% | 5 h2.5 h to 1.3 work days | Stays with people | |
| Create decorative textures in finish coat, using brushes or trowels, sand, pebbles, or stones.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Robotic Plaster Spraying (RPS) (Gramazio Kohler Research / NCCR dfab, ETH Zurich) (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Install guide wires on exterior surfaces of buildings to indicate thickness of plaster or stucco and nail wire mesh, lath, or similar materials to the outside surface to hold stucco in place.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 2.5 h50 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Clean and prepare surfaces for applications of plaster, cement, stucco, or similar materials, such as by drywall taping.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, GrayMatter Robotics surface-finishing systems (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Spray acoustic materials or texture finish over walls or ceilings.Done more than monthly by most who do it.Robots: in a structured facility, Okibo EG7 (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 2.5 h1.3 h to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Set up scaffolds.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Genio (PERI UP Robotics) (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 1.7 h50 min to 4.2 h | Stays with people | |
| Clean job sites.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Carousel plant pallet cleaning and oiling system (Olmet Italy) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 50 min17 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Cover surfaces such as windows, doors, or sidewalks to protect from splashing.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, FerRobotics ATK (Active Taping Kit) with Aerobotix robotic cells (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 33 min17 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Mold or install ornamental plaster pieces, panels, or trim.Done more than monthly by most who do it.Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Determine materials needed to complete the job and place orders accordingly.Done daily by most who do it. | 2% | 38 min17 min to 1.3 h | 100%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Helpers--Painters, Paperhangers, Plasterers, and Stucco Masons0% now, 0% by 2028
- Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers5% now, 5% by 2028
- Helpers--Brickmasons, Blockmasons, Stonemasons, and Tile and Marble Setters6% now, 6% by 2028
- Roofers1% now, 1% by 2028
- Painters, Construction and Maintenance3% now, 3% by 2028
- Insulation Workers, Floor, Ceiling, and Wall2% now, 2% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Plasterers and Stucco Masons is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 2% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 2% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Plasterers and Stucco Masons come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Determine materials needed to complete the job and place orders accordingly (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Plasterers and Stucco Masons stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Apply insulation to building exteriors by installing prefabricated insulation systems over existing walls or by covering the outer wall with insulation board, reinforcing mesh, and a base coat; Apply coats of plaster or stucco to walls, ceilings, or partitions of buildings, using trowels, brushes, or spray guns; and Apply weatherproof, decorative coverings to exterior surfaces of buildings, such as by troweling or spraying on coats of stucco. Together such tasks are about 98% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Plasterers and Stucco Masons?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Plasterers and Stucco Masons?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 98% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 84% of the working time, 9% in any setting. Its index is 1.07 of 3. One example: SPEC MIX D2W continuous mixing system (silo-fed) for "mix mortar and plaster to desired consistency or direct workers who perform mixing". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 15 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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