Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators
In short: today's best AI models could do about 0% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 100% of the time, stays with people.
Operate equipment used for applying concrete, asphalt, or other materials to road beds, parking lots, or airport runways and taxiways or for tamping gravel, dirt, or other materials. Includes concrete and asphalt paving machine operators, form tampers, tamping machine operators, and stone spreader operators.
41,820 people do this job in the US. $53,340 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on0 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people40 h
Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 0 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 40 hours stay with people.
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 0%
- 0%
- 100%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 0%. Today's estimate: 0%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
None of this job's 20 tasks showed up in the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled in any of its 7 releases, from February 2025 to May 2026.
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 97% of this job's working time as physical work. For 80% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 19% in a purpose-built cell, 19% in a structured facility, 43% in any setting. 1.85 of 3, the 6th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 3%
- No robot shown 16%
- In a purpose-built cell 19%
- In a structured facility 19%
- In any setting 43%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 20 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operate machines to spread, smooth, level, or steel-reinforce stone, concrete, or asphalt on road beds.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, XCMG unmanned paving and compaction fleet (BeiDou-guided pavers and tandem rollers) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 16% | 1.7 h25 min to 4.2 h | Stays with people | |
| Control paving machines to push dump trucks and to maintain a constant flow of asphalt or other material into hoppers or screeds.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, Sany unmanned paving & compaction fleet (无人摊压机群), incl. unmanned asphalt pavers (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 14% | 1.3 h25 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Operate oil distributors, loaders, chip spreaders, dump trucks, and snow plows.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Cat MineStar Command for hauling (Cat 777) (Caterpillar) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 10% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Operate tamping machines or manually roll surfaces to compact earth fills, foundation forms, and finished road materials, according to grade specifications.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, XCMG unmanned tandem rollers / unmanned paving fleet (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 1.7 h33 min to 4.2 h | Stays with people | |
| Drive machines onto truck trailers, and drive trucks to transport machines and material to and from job sites.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Pronto Autonomous Haulage System (AHS) on Cat 775G / Komatsu HD605 trucks (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 1.3 h25 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Shovel blacktop.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, XCMG unmanned/autonomous asphalt paver fleet (RP1253T paver with autonomous tandem rollers) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Inspect, clean, maintain, and repair equipment, using mechanics' hand tools, or report malfunctions to supervisors.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 50 min17 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Observe distribution of paving material to adjust machine settings or material flow, and indicate low spots for workers to add material.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Automatic longitudinal grade and transverse slope screed control (approved automatic control systems on asphalt pavers) (Multiple OEM/aftermarket suppliers) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 50 min17 min to 2.1 h | Stays with people | |
| Coordinate truck dumping.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 5% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Set up and tear down equipment.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 1.3 h25 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Control traffic.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Falcon 75 / Falcon 100 Automated Cone Laying Machine (ACLM) (Highway Care with SENN Engineering) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 50 min25 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Start machine, engage clutch, and push and move levers to guide machine along forms or guidelines and to control the operation of machine attachments.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, XCMG unmanned road construction fleet (autonomous pavers and tandem rollers, BeiDou-guided) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 17 min8 min to 33 min | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Construction Laborers1% now, 1% by 2028
- Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators3% now, 3% by 2028
- Segmental Pavers0% now, 0% by 2028
- Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers0% now, 0% by 2028
- Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining10% now, 10% by 2028
- Pile Driver Operators0% now, 0% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 0% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 0% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators come within reach first?
- No task has a meaningful share of its time within reach now or by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five: the work is mostly people work and body work, which the site does not count.
- Which tasks of Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Operate machines to spread, smooth, level, or steel-reinforce stone, concrete, or asphalt on road beds; Control paving machines to push dump trucks and to maintain a constant flow of asphalt or other material into hoppers or screeds; and Operate oil distributors, loaders, chip spreaders, dump trucks, and snow plows. Together such tasks are about 100% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 97% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 80% of the working time, 43% in any setting. Its index is 1.85 of 3. One example: XCMG unmanned paving and compaction fleet (BeiDou-guided pavers and tandem rollers) for "operate machines to spread, smooth, level, or steel-reinforce stone, concrete, or asphalt on road beds". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 20 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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