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Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists

Conduct research dealing with the understanding of human diseases and the improvement of human health. Engage in clinical investigation, research and development, or other related activities.

172,340 people do this job in the US. $103,410 a year.

now
1%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 79%
  • 14%
  • 6%
4%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
January 2029

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 79% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 0%. Today's estimate: 1%.

0%5%10%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 0% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 0% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 0% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 0% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 0% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 1% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 14 tasks from .

TaskKind
Study animal and human health and physiological processes.Done daily by most who do it.12%2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks1%Half by Oct 2028
Write and publish articles in scientific journals.Done yearly or less by most who do it. 12%1 work week2.1 work days to 2.8 work weeks0%Half by Oct 2028
Investigate cause, progress, life cycle, or mode of transmission of diseases or parasites.Done daily by most who do it.12%1 work week1 work day to 4.2 work weeks0%Half by Jun 2029
Plan and direct studies to investigate human or animal disease, preventive methods, and treatments for disease.Done daily by most who do it. 12%1.7 work weeks2.1 work days to 4.2 work weeksStays with people
Conduct research to develop methodologies, instrumentation, and procedures for medical application, analyzing data and presenting findings to the scientific audience and general public.Done daily by most who do it. 12%3.3 work weeks4.2 work days to 2.4 work months0%Half by Dec 2029
Write applications for research grants.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 12%1 work week2.1 work days to 3.5 work weeks0%Half by Nov 2028
Standardize drug dosages, methods of immunization, and procedures for manufacture of drugs and medicinal compounds.Done more than monthly by most who do it.10%4.2 work days6.7 h to 3.3 work weeks0%Half by Apr 2029
Evaluate effects of drugs, gases, pesticides, parasites, and microorganisms at various levels.Done daily by most who do it. 9%6.7 h3.3 h to 2.1 work days10%Half by May 2027
Prepare and analyze organ, tissue, and cell samples to identify toxicity, bacteria, or microorganisms or to study cell structure.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 4%4.2 h1.7 h to 1.3 work daysStays with people
Teach principles of medicine and medical and laboratory procedures to physicians, residents, students, and technicians.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 2%2.5 h50 min to 6.7 hStays with people
Use equipment such as atomic absorption spectrometers, electron microscopes, flow cytometers, or chromatography systems.Done more than weekly by most who do it.1%2.5 h50 min to 1 work dayStays with people
Follow strict safety procedures when handling toxic materials to avoid contamination.Done daily by most who do it. 0.8%25 min13 min to 1.3 hStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.