Epidemiologists
In short: today's best AI models could do about 20% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 81% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 16% of the time, stays with people.
Investigate and describe the determinants and distribution of disease, disability, or health outcomes. May develop the means for prevention and control.
12,090 people do this job in the US. $87,220 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on8 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet25 h
- Stays with people7 h
Epidemiologists, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 8 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 25 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 7 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Oversee public health programs, including statistical analysis, health care planning, surveillance systems, and public health improvement (about 1 h); Provide expertise in the design, management and evaluation of study protocols and health status questionnaires, sample selection, and analysis (about 1 h); Communicate research findings on various types of diseases to health practitioners, policy makers, and the public (about 1 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 84%
- 16%
- 1%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 3%. Today's estimate: 20%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.032% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 263rd largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 1 of its 16 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.049% to 0.09% (released February and March 2025); 0.092% to 0.04% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.034% to 0.032% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.049% | 279 of 708 | 5 of 16 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.09% | 171 of 703 | 6 of 16 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.092% | 166 of 655 | 3 of 16 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.034% | 303 of 672 | 3 of 16 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.04% | 278 of 677 | 4 of 16 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.034% | 257 of 434 | 1 of 16 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.032% | 263 of 447 | 1 of 16 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 1% of this job's working time as physical work. For 1% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 1% in a purpose-built cell. 0.01 of 3, the 644th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 99%
- In a purpose-built cell 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 16 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provide expertise in the design, management and evaluation of study protocols and health status questionnaires, sample selection, and analysis.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 10% | 1.6 work days3.3 h to 1 work week | 30%Half by Mar 2027 | |
| Oversee public health programs, including statistical analysis, health care planning, surveillance systems, and public health improvement.Done daily by most who do it. | 10% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days | 31%Half by Mar 2027 | |
| Identify and analyze public health issues related to foodborne parasitic diseases and their impact on public policies, scientific studies, or surveys.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 10% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 1 work week | 26%Half by Apr 2027 | |
| Investigate diseases or parasites to determine cause and risk factors, progress, life cycle, or mode of transmission.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 10% | 2.1 work days6.7 h to 1.4 work weeks | 26%Half by Apr 2027 | |
| Write articles for publication in professional journals.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 10% | 1 work week2.1 work days to 2.8 work weeks | 4%Half by Oct 2027 | |
| Write grant applications to fund epidemiologic research.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 10% | 1.3 work weeks2.1 work days to 3.3 work weeks | 2%Half by Jan 2028 | |
| Conduct research to develop methodologies, instrumentation, and procedures for medical application, analyzing data and presenting findings.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 10% | 1.3 work weeks1.7 work days to 3.3 work weeks | 2%Half by Mar 2028 | |
| Plan and direct studies to investigate human or animal disease, preventive methods, and treatments for disease.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 10% | 1.7 work weeks2.1 work days to 4.2 work weeks | Stays with people | |
| Plan, administer and evaluate health safety standards and programs to improve public health, conferring with health department, industry personnel, physicians, and others.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 8% | 2.6 work days6.7 h to 1.7 work weeks | 16%Half by Jul 2027 | |
| Supervise professional, technical, and clerical personnel.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 3.3 h50 min to 6.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Communicate research findings on various types of diseases to health practitioners, policy makers, and the public.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 3% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Educate healthcare workers, patients, and the public about infectious and communicable diseases, including disease transmission and prevention.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 2% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | 96%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Epidemiologists is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 20% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 81% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (60% to 84% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Epidemiologists come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Oversee public health programs, including statistical analysis, health care planning, surveillance systems, and public health improvement (31% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Provide expertise in the design, management and evaluation of study protocols and health status questionnaires, sample selection, and analysis (30% of the task's time now, 99% by the end of 2028); and Communicate research findings on various types of diseases to health practitioners, policy makers, and the public (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Epidemiologists stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Plan and direct studies to investigate human or animal disease, preventive methods, and treatments for disease; Supervise professional, technical, and clerical personnel; and Consult with and advise physicians, educators, researchers, government health officials and others regarding medical applications of sciences, such as physics, biology, and chemistry. Together such tasks are about 16% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Epidemiologists?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.032% went to this job's tasks, the 263rd largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 1 of its 16 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Epidemiologists?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 1% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 1% of the working time. Its index is 0.01 of 3. One example: Tox21 robotic qHTS platform for "prepare and analyze samples to study effects of drugs, gases, pesticides, or microorganisms on cell structure and tissue". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 16 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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