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Epidemiologists

Investigate and describe the determinants and distribution of disease, disability, or health outcomes. May develop the means for prevention and control.

12,090 people do this job in the US. $87,220 a year.

now
5%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 84%
  • 16%
  • 1%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
June 2028

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 84% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 3%. Today's estimate: 5%.

0%5%10%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 0% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 0% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 0% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 1% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 3% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 5% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 16 tasks from .

TaskKind
Provide expertise in the design, management and evaluation of study protocols and health status questionnaires, sample selection, and analysis.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 10%1.6 work days3.3 h to 1 work week2%Half by Mar 2028
Oversee public health programs, including statistical analysis, health care planning, surveillance systems, and public health improvement.Done daily by most who do it. 10%1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days2%Half by Feb 2028
Identify and analyze public health issues related to foodborne parasitic diseases and their impact on public policies, scientific studies, or surveys.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 10%1.7 work days3.3 h to 1 work week2%Half by Apr 2028
Investigate diseases or parasites to determine cause and risk factors, progress, life cycle, or mode of transmission.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 10%2.1 work days6.7 h to 1.4 work weeks1%Half by Mar 2028
Write articles for publication in professional journals.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 10%1 work week2.1 work days to 2.8 work weeks0%Half by Oct 2028
Write grant applications to fund epidemiologic research.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 10%1.3 work weeks2.1 work days to 3.3 work weeks0%Half by Jan 2029
Conduct research to develop methodologies, instrumentation, and procedures for medical application, analyzing data and presenting findings.Done yearly or less by most who do it. 10%1.3 work weeks1.7 work days to 3.3 work weeks0%Half by Mar 2029
Plan and direct studies to investigate human or animal disease, preventive methods, and treatments for disease.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 10%1.7 work weeks2.1 work days to 4.2 work weeksStays with people
Plan, administer and evaluate health safety standards and programs to improve public health, conferring with health department, industry personnel, physicians, and others.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 8%2.6 work days6.7 h to 1.7 work weeks0%Half by Jun 2028
Supervise professional, technical, and clerical personnel.Done daily by most who do it. 5%3.3 h50 min to 6.7 hStays with people
Communicate research findings on various types of diseases to health practitioners, policy makers, and the public.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 3%3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 h49%Half by now
Educate healthcare workers, patients, and the public about infectious and communicable diseases, including disease transmission and prevention.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 2%2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h46%Half by Oct 2026

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.