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Heat Treating Equipment Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic

Set up, operate, or tend heating equipment, such as heat-treating furnaces, flame-hardening machines, induction machines, soaking pits, or vacuum equipment to temper, harden, anneal, or heat treat metal or plastic objects.

14,000 people do this job in the US. $48,750 a year.

now
20%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 20%
  • 0%
  • 80%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 20% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 20%.

0%10%20%30%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 1% within reacho1, December 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 2% within reacho3, April 2025: 7% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 9% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 12% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 12% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 14% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 14% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 19% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 20% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 23 tasks from .

TaskKind
Set up and operate or tend machines, such as furnaces, baths, flame-hardening machines, and electronic induction machines, that harden, anneal, and heat-treat metal.Done daily by most who do it. 16%50 min17 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Adjust controls to maintain temperatures and heating times, using thermal instruments and charts, dials and gauges of furnaces, and color of stock in furnaces to make setting determinations.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 9%25 min8 min to 50 minStays with people
Load parts into containers and place containers on conveyors to be inserted into furnaces, or insert parts into furnaces.Done hourly or more by most who do it.9%25 min8 min to 50 minStays with people
Determine types and temperatures of baths and quenching media needed to attain specified part hardness, toughness, and ductility, using heat-treating charts and knowledge of methods, equipment, and metals.Done daily by most who do it.8%38 min13 min to 1.3 h98%Half by now
Remove parts from furnaces after specified times, and air dry or cool parts in water, oil brine, or other baths.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 7%21 min8 min to 50 minStays with people
Instruct new workers in machine operation.Done yearly or less by most who do it. 6%1.3 h25 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Read production schedules and work orders to determine processing sequences, furnace temperatures, and heat cycle requirements for objects to be heat-treated.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 6%13 min4 min to 33 min100%Half by now
Determine flame temperatures, current frequencies, heating cycles, and induction heating coils needed, based on degree of hardness required and properties of stock to be treated.Done daily by most who do it.5%33 min13 min to 1.1 h100%Half by now
Heat billets, bars, plates, rods, and other stock to specified temperatures preparatory to forging, rolling, or processing, using oil, gas, or electrical furnaces.Done daily by most who do it.4%38 min13 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Examine parts to ensure metal shades and colors conform to specifications, using knowledge of metal heat-treating.Done hourly or more by most who do it.4%13 min4 min to 38 minStays with people
Reduce heat when processing is complete to allow parts to cool in furnaces or machinery.Done hourly or more by most who do it.3%13 min4 min to 25 minStays with people
Test parts for hardness, using hardness testing equipment, or by examining and feeling samples.Done hourly or more by most who do it.3%17 min8 min to 33 minStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.