Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 36% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 45% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 55% of the time, stays with people.
Plan, direct, or coordinate the management or operation of farms, ranches, greenhouses, aquacultural operations, nurseries, timber tracts, or other agricultural establishments. May hire, train, and supervise farm workers or contract for services to carry out the day-to-day activities of the managed operation. May engage in or supervise planting, cultivating, harvesting, and financial and marketing activities.
6,500 people do this job in the US. $89,900 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on14 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet4 h
- Stays with people22 h
Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 14 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 4 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 22 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Determine plant growing conditions, such as greenhouses, hydroponics, or natural settings, and set planting and care schedules (about 5 h); Coordinate clerical, record-keeping, inventory, requisitioning, and marketing activities (about 3 h); Obtain financing for and purchase necessary machinery, land, supplies, or livestock (about 1 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 45%
- 7%
- 48%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 8%. Today's estimate: 36%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.021% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 306th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 2 of its 30 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.021% to 0.016% (released February and March 2025); 0.023% to 0.029% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.011% to 0.021% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.021% | 441 of 708 | 4 of 30 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.016% | 454 of 703 | 6 of 30 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.023% | 348 of 655 | 4 of 30 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.03% | 320 of 672 | 4 of 30 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.029% | 348 of 677 | 4 of 30 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.011% | 351 of 434 | 1 of 30 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.021% | 306 of 447 | 2 of 30 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 48% of this job's working time as physical work. For 32% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 1% in a purpose-built cell, 23% in a structured facility, 7% in any setting. 0.69 of 3, the 262nd highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 52%
- No robot shown 16%
- In a purpose-built cell 1%
- In a structured facility 23%
- In any setting 7%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 30 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manage nurseries that grow horticultural plants for sale to trade or retail customers, for display or exhibition, or for research.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 21% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | Stays with people | |
| Determine plant growing conditions, such as greenhouses, hydroponics, or natural settings, and set planting and care schedules.Done daily by most who do it. | 15% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days | 80%Half by now | |
| Coordinate clerical, record-keeping, inventory, requisitioning, and marketing activities.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 10% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days | 80%Half by now | |
| Direct crop production operations, such as planning, tilling, planting, fertilizing, cultivating, spraying, and harvesting.Robots: in a structured facility, John Deere Autonomous 9RX with 2nd-gen autonomy kit (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 3.3 work days | Stays with people | |
| Direct the breeding or raising of stock, such as cattle, poultry, or honeybees, using recognized breeding practices to ensure stock improvement.Done daily by most who do it. | 6% | 5 h1.7 h to 1.7 work days | Stays with people | |
| Obtain financing for and purchase necessary machinery, land, supplies, or livestock. | 4% | 1 work day3.3 h to 3.1 work days | 61%Half by now | |
| Determine types or quantities of crops, plants, or livestock to be grown and raised, based on budgets, federal incentives, market conditions, executive directives, projected sales volumes, or soil conditions. | 3% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | 55%Half by now | |
| Devise and participate in activities to improve fish hatching and growth rates, and to prevent disease in hatcheries.Done more than yearly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Jensorter fish egg sorter (JM4/JM8) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.1 work days | Stays with people | |
| Determine how to allocate resources and to respond to unanticipated problems, such as insect infestation, drought, and fire.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 3% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days | 80%Half by now | |
| Hire, supervise, and train support workers. | 3% | 5 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | Stays with people | |
| Analyze market conditions to determine acreage allocations.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 2% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 1.3 work days | 97%Half by now | |
| Position and regulate plant irrigation systems, and program environmental and irrigation control computers.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, Autonomous Pivot (AI Agronomist) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Agricultural Technicians6% now, 9% by 2028
- Agricultural Engineers7% now, 35% by 2028
- Soil and Plant Scientists6% now, 23% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Workers23% now, 24% by 2028
- Agricultural Sciences Teachers, Postsecondary39% now, 75% by 2028
- Biofuels Production Managers37% now, 57% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 36% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 45% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Determine plant growing conditions, such as greenhouses, hydroponics, or natural settings, and set planting and care schedules (80% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Coordinate clerical, record-keeping, inventory, requisitioning, and marketing activities (80% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); and Obtain financing for and purchase necessary machinery, land, supplies, or livestock (61% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028).
- Which tasks of Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Manage nurseries that grow horticultural plants for sale to trade or retail customers, for display or exhibition, or for research; Direct crop production operations, such as planning, tilling, planting, fertilizing, cultivating, spraying, and harvesting; and Direct the breeding or raising of stock, such as cattle, poultry, or honeybees, using recognized breeding practices to ensure stock improvement. Together such tasks are about 55% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.021% went to this job's tasks, the 306th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 2 of its 30 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 48% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 32% of the working time, 7% in any setting. Its index is 0.69 of 3. One example: Autonomous Pivot (AI Agronomist) for "position and regulate plant irrigation systems, and program environmental and irrigation control computers". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 30 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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