Actuaries
Analyze statistical data, such as mortality, accident, sickness, disability, and retirement rates and construct probability tables to forecast risk and liability for payment of future benefits. May ascertain insurance rates required and cash reserves necessary to ensure payment of future benefits.
26,670 people do this job in the US. $130,000 a year.
of the working time. Estimate.
- 84%
- 16%
- 0%
Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 1%. Today's estimate: 1%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
The tasks
Sorted by . 15 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provide advice to clients on a contract basis, working as a consultant.Done more than monthly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 15% | 1 work day3.3 h to 4.2 work days | 5%Half by Oct 2027 | |
| Analyze data to determine premium rates required and cash reserves and liabilities necessary to ensure payment of future benefits.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 15% | 2.1 work days6.7 h to 4.2 work days | 0%Half by Jan 2028 | |
| Collaborate with programmers, underwriters, accounts, claims experts, and senior management to help companies develop plans for new lines of business or improvements to existing business.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 15% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1 work week | Stays with people | |
| Design, review, and help administer insurance, annuity and pension plans, determining financial soundness and calculating premiums.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 15% | 4.2 work days1.7 work days to 3.3 work weeks | 0%Half by Nov 2028 | |
| Provide expertise to help financial institutions manage risks and maximize returns associated with investment products or credit offerings.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 14% | 2.1 work days6.7 h to 1.7 work weeks | 1%Half by Apr 2028 | |
| Analyze statistical information to estimate mortality, accident, sickness, disability, and retirement rates.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 11% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.3 work weeks | 1%Half by Jul 2028 | |
| Construct probability tables for events such as fires, natural disasters, and unemployment, based on analysis of statistical data and other pertinent information.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 6% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 2.5 work weeks | 0%Half by Jan 2029 | |
| Determine policy contract provisions for each type of insurance.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 4% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days | 2%Half by Feb 2028 | |
| Determine, or help determine, company policy, and explain complex technical matters to company executives, government officials, shareholders, policyholders, or the public.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 2% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 3.1 work days | 7%Half by Nov 2027 | |
| Negotiate terms and conditions of reinsurance with other companies.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 0.5% | 2.1 work days5 h to 1.3 work weeks | Stays with people | |
| Manage credit and help price corporate security offerings.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 0.5% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks | 1%Half by Sep 2028 | |
| Determine equitable basis for distributing surplus earnings under participating insurance and annuity contracts in mutual companies.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 0.4% | 2.1 work days6.7 h to 1.3 work weeks | 1%Half by Mar 2028 |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).