Actuaries
In short: today's best AI models could do about 22% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 82% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 16% of the time, stays with people.
Analyze statistical data, such as mortality, accident, sickness, disability, and retirement rates and construct probability tables to forecast risk and liability for payment of future benefits. May ascertain insurance rates required and cash reserves necessary to ensure payment of future benefits.
26,670 people do this job in the US. $130,000 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on9 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet24 h
- Stays with people7 h
Actuaries, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 9 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 24 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 7 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Provide advice to clients on a contract basis, working as a consultant (about 3 h); Analyze data to determine premium rates required and cash reserves and liabilities necessary to ensure payment of future benefits (about 2 h); Provide expertise to help financial institutions manage risks and maximize returns associated with investment products or credit offerings (about 1 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 84%
- 16%
- 0%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 1%. Today's estimate: 22%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.074% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 192nd largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 1 of its 15 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.065% to 0.064% (released February and March 2025); 0.26% to 0.28% (August 2025 to February 2026); none to 0.074% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.065% | 237 of 708 | 6 of 15 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.064% | 228 of 703 | 6 of 15 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.26% | 69 of 655 | 4 of 15 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.2% | 86 of 672 | 5 of 15 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.28% | 72 of 677 | 5 of 15 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 15 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.074% | 192 of 447 | 1 of 15 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates almost none of this job's working time as physical work, so robots do not reach it.
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 15 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provide advice to clients on a contract basis, working as a consultant.Done more than monthly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 15% | 1 work day3.3 h to 4.2 work days | 52%Half by now | |
| Analyze data to determine premium rates required and cash reserves and liabilities necessary to ensure payment of future benefits.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 15% | 2.1 work days6.7 h to 4.2 work days | 35%Half by Jan 2027 | |
| Collaborate with programmers, underwriters, accounts, claims experts, and senior management to help companies develop plans for new lines of business or improvements to existing business.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 15% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1 work week | Stays with people | |
| Design, review, and help administer insurance, annuity and pension plans, determining financial soundness and calculating premiums.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 15% | 4.2 work days1.7 work days to 3.3 work weeks | 7%Half by Nov 2027 | |
| Provide expertise to help financial institutions manage risks and maximize returns associated with investment products or credit offerings.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 14% | 2.1 work days6.7 h to 1.7 work weeks | 23%Half by May 2027 | |
| Analyze statistical information to estimate mortality, accident, sickness, disability, and retirement rates.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 11% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.3 work weeks | 18%Half by Jul 2027 | |
| Construct probability tables for events such as fires, natural disasters, and unemployment, based on analysis of statistical data and other pertinent information.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 6% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 2.5 work weeks | 6%Half by Feb 2028 | |
| Determine policy contract provisions for each type of insurance.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 4% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days | 31%Half by Mar 2027 | |
| Determine, or help determine, company policy, and explain complex technical matters to company executives, government officials, shareholders, policyholders, or the public.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 2% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 3.1 work days | 48%Half by now | |
| Negotiate terms and conditions of reinsurance with other companies.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 0.5% | 2.1 work days5 h to 1.3 work weeks | Stays with people | |
| Manage credit and help price corporate security offerings.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 0.5% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks | 15%Half by Oct 2027 | |
| Determine equitable basis for distributing surplus earnings under participating insurance and annuity contracts in mutual companies.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 0.4% | 2.1 work days6.7 h to 1.3 work weeks | 28%Half by Mar 2027 |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Actuaries is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 22% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 82% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (66% to 84% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Actuaries come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Provide advice to clients on a contract basis, working as a consultant (52% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Analyze data to determine premium rates required and cash reserves and liabilities necessary to ensure payment of future benefits (35% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); and Provide expertise to help financial institutions manage risks and maximize returns associated with investment products or credit offerings (23% of the task's time now, 99% by the end of 2028).
- Which tasks of Actuaries stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Collaborate with programmers, underwriters, accounts, claims experts, and senior management to help companies develop plans for new lines of business or improvements to existing business; Negotiate terms and conditions of reinsurance with other companies; and Testify before public agencies on proposed legislation affecting businesses. Together such tasks are about 16% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Actuaries?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.074% went to this job's tasks, the 192nd largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 1 of its 15 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 5%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Actuaries?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds almost none of the working time is physical work, so robots do not reach it.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 15 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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