Nonmetro area, Missouri
Southwest Missouri nonmetropolitan area
79,560 people work in this area, at mean pay of $48,220 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 38 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 28%
- 23%
- 49%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 20% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 71,743 people in jobs so far, 90% of the area's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 23 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 14 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 9.4 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 18%
- 10%
- 7%
- 17%
- 48%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 71,743 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft42,900 (60%)
- The conversations22,583 (31%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself20,933 (29%)
- Judgment where errors are severe19,410 (27%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts15,390 (21%)
- Signing off under your license6,940 (10%)
- Running AI inside the business systems6,240 (9%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization3,530 (5%)
- Handling protected records230 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 17%. Today's estimate: 25%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 55% of the working time of the people in this area as physical work. For 42% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 29% in a purpose-built cell, 13% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.57 of 3.
- Not physical 45%
- No robot shown 13%
- In a purpose-built cell 29%
- In a structured facility 13%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 61% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| General and Operations Managers | 3,160 | 45% | 3 million | $61K |
| Office Clerks, General | 1,760 | 56% | 2.1 million | $38K |
| Retail Salespersons | 2,850 | 23% | 1.4 million | $31K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 960 | 59% | 1.2 million | $38K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 840 | 64% | 1.1 million | $36K |
| Cashiers | 2,730 | 19% | 1.1 million | $30K |
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 1,440 | 35% | 1 million | $46K |
| Registered Nurses | 1,270 | 37% | 972,112 | $80K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 2,350 | 19% | 943,384 | $36K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 480 | 88% | 879,591 | $41K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 870 | 48% | 872,227 | $36K |
| Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education | 980 | 40% | 807,208 | $48K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 246 smaller jobs (28,470 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 92% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General440,834 hours100% of the task within reach
- Direct and coordinate activities of businesses or departments concerned with the production, pricing, sales, or distribution of products.General and Operations Managers404,122 hours40% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers401,406 hours100% of the task within reach
- Set prices or credit terms for goods or services, based on forecasts of customer demand.General and Operations Managers386,349 hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare staff work schedules and assign specific duties.General and Operations Managers363,975 hours80% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons345,336 hours50% of the task within reach
- Establish or implement departmental policies, goals, objectives, or procedures in conjunction with board members, organization officials, or staff members.General and Operations Managers340,396 hours60% of the task within reach
- Plan or direct activities, such as sales promotions, that require coordination with other department managers.General and Operations Managers286,607 hours50% of the task within reach
- Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers286,021 hours100% of the task within reach
- Open and close cash registers, performing tasks such as counting money, separating charge slips, coupons, and vouchers, balancing cash drawers, and making deposits.Retail Salespersons274,763 hours50% of the task within reach
The regional report on Southwest Missouri nonmetropolitan area
This page lists the largest jobs. The scan reads the whole workforce: every occupation BLS publishes here that the site has task data for, 92% of the people, at their local headcount and pay. The preview is free. The full report ($249, or included in Pro) is the report for a workforce board, a college or an economic development team: every occupation and the tasks behind its hours, what handing the work over would take, what changes for the people in each job and what they would learn, with the workbook and the slides to cite. Dated, with the method. For workforce boards and colleges
See what it holds first: the full report for Worcester, MA, Excel and slides.
Other areas in Missouri
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- St. Louis, MO-IL1,341,320 people30% now, 36% by 2028
- Kansas City, MO-KS1,096,110 people30% now, 36% by 2028
- Springfield, MO223,030 people29% now, 33% by 2028
- Southeast Missouri nonmetropolitan area164,560 people26% now, 29% by 2028
- Central Missouri nonmetropolitan area154,880 people26% now, 29% by 2028
- Columbia, MO107,680 people31% now, 37% by 2028
- North Missouri nonmetropolitan area106,300 people27% now, 30% by 2028
- Joplin, MO-KS87,190 people26% now, 29% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this area
- How much of the work in Southwest Missouri nonmetropolitan area is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 25% of the paid hours in Southwest Missouri nonmetropolitan area are within reach of AI models now and 28% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Southwest Missouri nonmetropolitan area carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): General and Operations Managers (3,160 people, 45% of their time, about 3 million hours a year); Office Clerks, General (1,760 people, 56% of their time, about 2.1 million hours a year); and Retail Salespersons (2,850 people, 23% of their time, about 1.4 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Southwest Missouri nonmetropolitan area carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports (Office Clerks, General, about 440,834 hours a year); Direct and coordinate activities of businesses or departments concerned with the production, pricing, sales, or distribution of products (General and Operations Managers, about 404,122 hours a year); and Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions (Cashiers, about 401,406 hours a year).
- What would people working in Southwest Missouri nonmetropolitan area learn first?
- Among the 71,743 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (42,900 people); the conversations (22,583 people); and reviewing work you did not do yourself (20,933 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 72% of their working time stays with people, 20% becomes checking a model's work and 8% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Southwest Missouri nonmetropolitan area (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The area's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 92% of its people, and 90% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.