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Commercial Divers

Work below surface of water, using surface-supplied air or scuba equipment to inspect, repair, remove, or install equipment and structures. May use a variety of power and hand tools, such as drills, sledgehammers, torches, and welding equipment. May conduct tests or experiments, rig explosives, or photograph structures or marine life.

3,450 people do this job in the US. $72,990 a year.

now
6%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 6%
  • 0%
  • 94%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 6% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 6%. Today's estimate: 6%.

0%5%10%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 1% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 1% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 3% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 3% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 4% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 4% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 6% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 6% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 24 tasks from .

TaskKind
Perform activities related to underwater search and rescue, salvage, recovery, or cleanup operations.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 8%5 h1.7 h to 1.3 work daysStays with people
Check and maintain diving equipment, such as helmets, masks, air tanks, harnesses, or gauges.Done daily by most who do it. 8%1.3 h25 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Recover objects by placing rigging around sunken objects, hooking rigging to crane lines, and operating winches, derricks, or cranes to raise objects.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 7%4.2 h1.7 h to 6.7 hStays with people
Cut and weld steel, using underwater welding equipment, jigs, and supports.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 6%6.7 h2.5 h to 1.3 work daysStays with people
Supervise or train other divers, including hobby divers.Done daily by most who do it. 6%3.3 h50 min to 6.7 hStays with people
Operate underwater video, sonar, recording, or related equipment to investigate underwater structures or marine life.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 5%2.8 h50 min to 5 hStays with people
Salvage wrecked ships or their cargo, using pneumatic power velocity and hydraulic tools and explosive charges, when necessary.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 5%1 work day4.2 h to 2.5 work daysStays with people
Install, inspect, clean, or repair piping or valves.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 5%3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 hStays with people
Repair ships, bridge foundations, or other structures below the water line, using caulk, bolts, and hand tools.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 5%5 h1.7 h to 1 work dayStays with people
Take appropriate safety precautions, such as monitoring dive lengths and depths and registering with authorities before diving expeditions begin.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 5%50 min25 min to 1.7 h99%Half by now
Inspect and test docks, ships, buoyage systems, plant intakes or outflows, or underwater pipelines, cables, or sewers, using closed circuit television, still photography, and testing equipment.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 5%3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 hStays with people
Install pilings or footings for piers or bridges.Done yearly or less by most who do it. 5%6.7 h3.3 h to 1.7 work daysStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).