Commercial Divers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 6% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 94% of the time, stays with people.
Work below surface of water, using surface-supplied air or scuba equipment to inspect, repair, remove, or install equipment and structures. May use a variety of power and hand tools, such as drills, sledgehammers, torches, and welding equipment. May conduct tests or experiments, rig explosives, or photograph structures or marine life.
3,450 people do this job in the US. $72,990 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on3 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people37 h
Commercial Divers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 3 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 37 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Take appropriate safety precautions, such as monitoring dive lengths and depths and registering with authorities before diving expeditions begin (about 2 h); Obtain information about diving tasks and environmental conditions (under an hour).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 6%
- 0%
- 94%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 6%. Today's estimate: 6%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 24 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.006% to 0.0024% (released February and March 2025); 0.0032% to 0.0022% (August 2025 to February 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.006% | 584 of 708 | 1 of 24 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.0024% | 640 of 703 | 1 of 24 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.0032% | 581 of 655 | 1 of 24 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.0023% | 632 of 672 | 1 of 24 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.0022% | 641 of 677 | 1 of 24 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 24 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 24 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 76% of this job's working time as physical work. For 50% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 34% in a purpose-built cell, 16% in a structured facility. 0.66 of 3, the 267th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 24%
- No robot shown 26%
- In a purpose-built cell 34%
- In a structured facility 16%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 24 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perform activities related to underwater search and rescue, salvage, recovery, or cleanup operations.Done more than yearly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Commercial robotic pool cleaners (e.g., Fluidra/Zodiac, Hayward, MOVA Rover X10) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 8% | 5 h1.7 h to 1.3 work days | Stays with people | |
| Check and maintain diving equipment, such as helmets, masks, air tanks, harnesses, or gauges.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 8% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Recover objects by placing rigging around sunken objects, hooking rigging to crane lines, and operating winches, derricks, or cranes to raise objects.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Girona 500 I-AUV (RAUVI project) (University of Girona / Jaume-I University / University of the Balearic Islands) (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 4.2 h1.7 h to 6.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Cut and weld steel, using underwater welding equipment, jigs, and supports.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, MARIOW underwater welding robot (DFKI modular underwater manipulator + UW-FCAW) (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 6.7 h2.5 h to 1.3 work days | Stays with people | |
| Supervise or train other divers, including hobby divers.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 3.3 h50 min to 6.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Operate underwater video, sonar, recording, or related equipment to investigate underwater structures or marine life.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, EverClean Inspection Robot (Greensea IQ) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 2.8 h50 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Salvage wrecked ships or their cargo, using pneumatic power velocity and hydraulic tools and explosive charges, when necessary.Done more than yearly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 1 work day4.2 h to 2.5 work days | Stays with people | |
| Install, inspect, clean, or repair piping or valves.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, AutoBox ABX-2L / ABX-3L automated flex lancing system (StoneAge Inc.) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Repair ships, bridge foundations, or other structures below the water line, using caulk, bolts, and hand tools.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 5 h1.7 h to 1 work day | Stays with people | |
| Take appropriate safety precautions, such as monitoring dive lengths and depths and registering with authorities before diving expeditions begin.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 5% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Inspect and test docks, ships, buoyage systems, plant intakes or outflows, or underwater pipelines, cables, or sewers, using closed circuit television, still photography, and testing equipment.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, EverClean Inspection Robot (Greensea IQ) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Install pilings or footings for piers or bridges.Done yearly or less by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Built Robotics RPD 35 autonomous piling system (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 6.7 h3.3 h to 1.7 work days | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Commercial Divers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 6% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 6% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Commercial Divers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Take appropriate safety precautions, such as monitoring dive lengths and depths and registering with authorities before diving expeditions begin (100% of the task's time now); and Obtain information about diving tasks and environmental conditions (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Commercial Divers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Perform activities related to underwater search and rescue, salvage, recovery, or cleanup operations; Check and maintain diving equipment, such as helmets, masks, air tanks, harnesses, or gauges; and Recover objects by placing rigging around sunken objects, hooking rigging to crane lines, and operating winches, derricks, or cranes to raise objects. Together such tasks are about 94% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Commercial Divers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Commercial Divers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 76% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 50% of the working time, 16% in a structured facility. Its index is 0.66 of 3. One example: EverClean Inspection Robot for "operate underwater video, sonar, recording, or related equipment to investigate underwater structures or marine life". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 24 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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