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Legislators

Develop, introduce, or enact laws and statutes at the local, tribal, state, or federal level. Includes only workers in elected positions.

$108,510 a year (for the broader BLS group this job sits in).

now
17%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 72%
  • 8%
  • 20%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
May 2027

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 72% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 12%. Today's estimate: 17%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 1% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 1% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 1% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 2% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 2% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 12% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 17% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 30 tasks from .

TaskKind
Develop expertise in subject matters related to committee assignments.7%6.7 h1.7 h to 4.2 work days6%Half by Jan 2028
Prepare drafts of amendments, government policies, laws, rules, regulations, budgets, programs and procedures.7%6.7 h1.7 h to 4.2 work days6%Half by Jan 2028
Seek federal funding for local projects and programs.7%6.7 h1.7 h to 3.1 work days7%Half by Nov 2027
Evaluate the structure, efficiency, activities, and performance of government agencies.7%6.7 h1.7 h to 4.2 work days6%Half by Jan 2028
Organize and maintain campaign organizations and fundraisers, in order to raise money for election or re-election.7%6.7 h1.7 h to 2.1 work days9%Half by Aug 2027
Represent their government at local, national, and international meetings and conferences.7%6.7 h2.5 h to 2.1 work daysStays with people
Determine campaign strategies for media advertising, positions on issues, and public appearances.4%4.2 h1.7 h to 2.1 work days20%Half by Apr 2027
Analyze and understand the local and national implications of proposed legislation.4%3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work days21%Half by May 2027
Negotiate with colleagues or members of other political parties in order to reconcile differing interests, and to create policies and agreements.4%3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work daysStays with people
Review bills in committee, and make recommendations about their future.4%3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days25%Half by Mar 2027
Serve on commissions, investigative panels, study groups, and committees in order to examine specialized areas and recommend action.4%3.3 h1.7 h to 2.1 work days28%Half by Feb 2027
Attend receptions, dinners, and conferences to meet people, exchange views and information, and develop working relationships.4%3.3 h1.3 h to 6.7 hStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.